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How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

When individuals participating in a randomized trial differ with respect to the distribution of effect modifiers compared compared with the target population where the trial results will be used, treatment effect estimates from the trial…

We consider methods for causal inference in randomized trials nested within cohorts of trial-eligible individuals, including those who are not randomized. We show how baseline covariate data from the entire cohort, and treatment and outcome…

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

We propose a model averaging approach, combined with a partition and matching method to estimate the conditional average treatment effects under heteroskedastic error settings. The proposed approach has asymptotic optimality and consistency…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Pengfei Shi , Xinyu Zhang , Wei Zhong

Conditional independence (CI) testing is frequently used in data analysis and machine learning for various scientific fields and it forms the basis of constraint-based causal discovery. Oftentimes, CI testing relies on strong, rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Wiebke Günther , Urmi Ninad , jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Causal inference methods are widely applied in various decision-making domains such as precision medicine, optimal policy and economics. Central to causal inference is the treatment effect estimation of intervention strategies, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Inferring causal effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to treatment. Observational studies in infectious disease research present the additional challenge that one participant's treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-25 Brian G. Barkley , Michael G. Hudgens , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

We propose semi- and non-parametric methods to estimate conditional interventional effects in the setting of two discrete mediators whose causal ordering is unknown. Average interventional indirect effects have been shown to decompose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-19 Max Rubinstein , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-03 Juha Karvanen

Information theoretic (IT) approaches to quantifying causal influences have experienced some popularity in the literature, in both theoretical and applied (e.g. neuroscience and climate science) domains. While these causal measures are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Gabriel Schamberg , William Chapman , Shang-Ping Xie , Todd P. Coleman

Objective: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are widely considered as gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of new health interventions. When treatment non-compliance is present in RCTs, the treatment effect in the subgroup of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-25 Theodosios Papazoglou , Ed Waddingham , Alastair Young

In scientific domains -- from biology to the social sciences -- many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, it is…

Researchers are frequently interested in understanding the causal effect of treatment interventions. However, in some cases, the treatment of interest--readily available in a randomized controlled trial (RCT)--is either not directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 Lan Wen , Aaron L Sarvet

In causality, estimating the effect of a treatment without confounding inference remains a major issue because requires to assess the outcome in both case with and without treatment. Not being able to observe simultaneously both of them,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Celine Beji , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

This paper develops a general framework for identifying causal effects in settings with spillovers, where both outcomes and endogenous treatment decisions are influenced by peers within a known group. It introduces the generalized local…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-01 Huan Wu

Learning causal effects from observational data greatly benefits a variety of domains such as health care, education and sociology. For instance, one could estimate the impact of a new drug on specific individuals to assist the clinic plan…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Xin Du , Lei Sun , Wouter Duivesteijn , Alexander Nikolaev , Mykola Pechenizkiy

We consider linear non-Gaussian structural equation models that involve latent confounding. In this setting, the causal structure is identifiable, but, in general, it is not possible to identify the specific causal effects. Instead, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-12 Daniela Schkoda , Elina Robeva , Mathias Drton