Related papers: An extended generalized Pareto regression model fo…
Inference over tails is performed by applying only the results of extreme value theory. Whilst such theory is well defined and flexible enough in the univariate case, multivariate inferential methods often require the imposition of…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…
This work performs a non-asymptotic analysis of the generalized Lasso under the assumption of sub-exponential data. Our main results continue recent research on the benchmark case of (sub-)Gaussian sample distributions and thereby explore…
The conventional use of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to model block maxima may be inappropriate when extremes are actually structured into multiple heterogeneous groups. In this work, we propose a novel approach for…
Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…
We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether…
Classical peaks over threshold analysis is widely used for statistical modeling of sample extremes, and can be supplemented by a model for the sizes of clusters of exceedances. Under mild conditions a compound Poisson process model allows…
This paper unifies and extends results on a class of multivariate Extreme Value (EV) models studied by Hougaard, Crowder, and Tawn. In these models both unconditional and conditional distributions are EV, and all lower-dimensional marginals…
We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…
Neural networks are able to approximate any continuous function on a compact set. However, it is not obvious how to quantify the error of the neural network, i.e., the remaining bias between the function and the neural network. Here, we…
The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
Nonparametric regression quantiles obtained by inverting a kernel estimator of the conditional distribution of the response are long established in statistics. Attention has been, however, restricted to ordinary quantiles staying away from…
In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…
A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…
In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve the precision of average treatment effect (ATE) estimation using covariates without requiring a correctly specified outcome model. Although well studied in low-dimensional…
Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…
The task of analyzing extreme events with censoring effects is considered under a framework allowing for random covariate information. A wide class of estimators that can be cast as product-limit integrals is considered, for when the…
A weighted Gaussian approximation to tail product-limit process for Pareto-like distributions of randomly right-truncated data is provided and a new consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the extreme value index is derived. A…
We revisit multivariate extreme value theory modeling by emphasizing multivariate regular variations and the multivariate Breiman Lemma. This allows us to recover in a simple framework the most popular multivariate extreme value…