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Many policies involve dynamics in their treatment assignments, where individuals receive sequential interventions over multiple stages. We study estimation of an optimal dynamic treatment regime that guides the optimal treatment assignment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-04 Shosei Sakaguchi

This study presents a Bayesian learning perspective towards model predictive control algorithms. High-level frameworks have been developed separately in the earlier studies on Bayesian learning and sampling-based model predictive control.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-14 Namhoon Cho , Seokwon Lee , Hyo-Sang Shin , Antonios Tsourdos

In this paper, we introduce an adaptive kernel method for solving the optimal filtering problem. The computational framework that we adopt is the Bayesian filter, in which we recursively generate an optimal estimate for the state of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-11 Zezhong Zhang , Richard Archibald , Feng Bao

Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-09 Arnold Salas , Stephen J. Roberts , Michael A. Osborne

To achieve the goal of providing the best possible care to each patient, physicians need to customize treatments for patients with the same diagnosis, especially when treating diseases that can progress further and require additional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Xiao Li , Brent R Logan , S M Ferdous Hossain , Erica E M Moodie

Distributional reinforcement learning algorithms have attempted to utilize estimated uncertainty for exploration, such as optimism in the face of uncertainty. However, using the estimated variance for optimistic exploration may cause biased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Taehyun Cho , Seungyub Han , Heesoo Lee , Kyungjae Lee , Jungwoo Lee

Gathering labeled data to train well-performing machine learning models is one of the critical challenges in many applications. Active learning aims at reducing the labeling costs by an efficient and effective allocation of costly labeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Daniel Kottke , Marek Herde , Christoph Sandrock , Denis Huseljic , Georg Krempl , Bernhard Sick

Stochastic control with both inherent random system noise and lack of knowledge on system parameters constitutes the core and fundamental topic in reinforcement learning (RL), especially under non-episodic situations where online learning…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-06-24 Xin Huang , Duan Li , Daniel Zhuoyu Long

We develop a tractable and flexible approach for incorporating side information into dynamic optimization under uncertainty. The proposed framework uses predictive machine learning methods (such as $k$-nearest neighbors, kernel regression,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-23 Dimitris Bertsimas , Christopher McCord , Bradley Sturt

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-07 Mert Kayaalp , Virginia Bordignon , Stefan Vlaski , Vincenzo Matta , Ali H. Sayed

We propose and test improvements to state-of-the-art techniques of Bayeasian statistical inference based on pseudolikelihood maximization with $\ell_1$ regularization and with decimation. In particular, we present a method to determine the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-07-18 Alessia Marruzzo , Payal Tyagi , Fabrizio Antenucci , Andrea Pagnani , Luca Leuzzi

Learning-based techniques are increasingly effective at controlling complex systems using data-driven models. However, most work done so far has focused on learning individual tasks or control laws. Hence, it is still a largely unaddressed…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-05-08 Alexandre Capone , Armin Lederer , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Bayesian optimisation presents a sample-efficient methodology for global optimisation. Within this framework, a crucial performance-determining subroutine is the maximisation of the acquisition function, a task complicated by the fact that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 Antoine Grosnit , Alexander I. Cowen-Rivers , Rasul Tutunov , Ryan-Rhys Griffiths , Jun Wang , Haitham Bou-Ammar

The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Kaizheng Wang

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-30 Jasper Snoek , Hugo Larochelle , Ryan P. Adams

Bayesian optimisation has proven to be a powerful tool for expensive global black-box optimisation problems. In this paper, we propose new Bayesian optimisation variants of the popular Knowledge Gradient acquisition functions for problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Xietao Wang Lin , Juan Ungredda , Max Butler , James Town , Alma Rahat , Hemant Singh , Juergen Branke

Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-18 Debashis Chatterjee

When applying machine learning to problems in NLP, there are many choices to make about how to represent input texts. These choices can have a big effect on performance, but they are often uninteresting to researchers or practitioners who…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2015-03-03 Dani Yogatama , Noah A. Smith

In chemical and manufacturing processes, unit failures due to equipment degradation can lead to process downtime and significant costs. In this context, finding an optimal maintenance strategy to ensure good unit health while avoiding…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-25 Johannes Wiebe , Inês Cecílio , Ruth Misener

Bayesian optimization is a sequential method for minimizing objective functions that are expensive to evaluate and about which few assumptions can be made. By using all gathered data to train a Gaussian process model for the function and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jesse Schneider , William J. Welch