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Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-19 Elizabeth Bersson , Peter D. Hoff

Conformal regression provides prediction intervals with global coverage guarantees, but often fails to capture local error distributions, leading to non-homogeneous coverage. We address this with a new adaptive method based on rescaling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-01 Nicolas Deutschmann , Mattia Rigotti , Maria Rodriguez Martinez

This paper develops distribution theory and bootstrap-based inference methods for a broad class of convex pairwise difference estimators. These estimators minimize a kernel-weighted convex-in-parameter function over observation pairs with…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-29 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson , Kenichi Nagasawa

Samples with a common mean but possibly different, ordered variances arise in various fields such as interlaboratory experiments, field studies or the analysis of sensor data. Estimators for the common mean under ordered variances typically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Ansgar Steland , Yuan-Tsung Chang

The estimation of covariance operators of spatio-temporal data is in many applications only computationally feasible under simplifying assumptions, such as separability of the covariance into strictly temporal and spatial factors.Powerful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-30 Holger Dette , Gauthier Dierickx , Tim Kutta

This paper studies the asymptotic properties of and alternative inference methods for kernel density estimation (KDE) for dyadic data. We first establish uniform convergence rates for dyadic KDE. Secondly, we propose a modified jackknife…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-16 Harold D. Chiang , Bing Yang Tan

This article proposes a generalisation of the delete-$d$ jackknife to solve hyperparameter selection problems for time series. I call it artificial delete-$d$ jackknife to stress that this approach substitutes the classic removal step with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Filippo Pellegrino

First, we analyze the variance of the Cross Validation (CV)-based estimators used for estimating the performance of classification rules. Second, we propose a novel estimator to estimate this variance using the Influence Function (IF)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-10 Waleed A. Yousef

Estimating the entropy of a discrete random variable is a fundamental problem in information theory and related fields. This problem has many applications in various domains, including machine learning, statistics and data compression. Over…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Yuval Shalev , Amichai Painsky , Irad Ben-Gal

A standing challenge in data privacy is the trade-off between the level of privacy and the efficiency of statistical inference. Here we conduct an in-depth study of this trade-off for parameter estimation in the $\beta$-model (Chatterjee,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-05 Jinyuan Chang , Qiao Hu , Eric D. Kolaczyk , Qiwei Yao , Fengting Yi

Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Kengo Nagashima , Hisashi Noma , Toshi A. Furukawa

Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) parameter estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data-based model selection. The key result of Efron (2014) is a very convenient and widely applicable formula for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-29 Paul Kabaila , Christeen Wijethunga

Recently Mart\'in Andr\'es and \'Alvarez Hern\'andez (2024) have proposed new estimators of various kappa coefficients. These estimators are based on the unbiased estimator of the expected index of agreement of each population coefficient.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-10 Antonio Martín Andrés , María Álvarez Hernández

Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Anton Akusok , Yoan Miche , Kaj-Mikael Björk , Amaury Lendasse

To measure the degree of agreement between two observers that independently classify $n$ subjects within $K$ categories, it is common to use different kappa type coefficients, the most common of which is the $\kappa_C$ coefficient (Cohen's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-24 A. Martín Andrés , M. Álvarez Hernández

We propose an information-theoretic alternative to the popular Cronbach alpha coefficient of reliability. Particularly suitable for contexts in which instruments are scored on a strictly nonnumeric scale, our proposed index is based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-19 Ernest Fokoue , Necla Gunduz

This paper is concerned with estimation and inference for the location of a change point in the mean of independent high-dimensional data. Our change point location estimator maximizes a new U-statistic based objective function, and its…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-12 Runmin Wang , Xiaofeng Shao

In the field of machine learning, regression problems are pivotal due to their ability to predict continuous outcomes. Traditional error metrics like mean squared error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination measure model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Yu-Hsueh Fang , Chia-Yen Lee

We consider the issue of performing accurate small sample inference in beta autoregressive moving average model, which is useful for modeling and forecasting continuous variables that assumes values in the interval $(0,1)$. The inferences…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-16 Bruna Gregory Palm , Fábio M. Bayer

Many statistical applications require the quantification of joint dependence among more than two random vectors. In this work, we generalize the notion of distance covariance to quantify joint dependence among d >= 2 random vectors. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-18 Shubhadeep Chakraborty , Xianyang Zhang