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A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Zhongjun Qu , Wendun Wang , Xiaomeng Zhang

Understanding model performance on unlabeled data is a fundamental challenge of developing, deploying, and maintaining AI systems. Model performance is typically evaluated using test sets or periodic manual quality assessments, both of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-17 Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Anupama Murthi , Jiri Navratil

While most machine learning models can provide confidence in their predictions, confidence is insufficient to understand a prediction's reliability. For instance, the model may have a low confidence prediction if the input is not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Mert Yuksekgonul , Linjun Zhang , James Zou , Carlos Guestrin

We propose two approaches to estimate semiparametric discrete choice models for bundles. Our first approach is a kernel-weighted rank estimator based on a matching-based identification strategy. We establish its complete asymptotic…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-18 Fu Ouyang , Thomas Tao Yang

We propose two approaches to estimate semiparametric discrete choice models for bundles. Our first approach is a kernel-weighted rank estimator based on a matching-based identification strategy. We establish its complete asymptotic…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-18 Fu Ouyang , Thomas T. Yang

This paper proposes a post-model selection inference procedure, called targeted undersmoothing, designed to construct uniformly valid confidence sets for a broad class of functionals of sparse high-dimensional statistical models. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Christian Hansen , Damian Kozbur , Sanjog Misra

This paper develops a new approach to post-selection inference for screening high-dimensional predictors of survival outcomes. Post-selection inference for right-censored outcome data has been investigated in the literature, but much…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-22 Tzu-Jung Huang , Alex Luedtke , Ian W. McKeague

Model selection requires repeatedly evaluating models on a given dataset and measuring their relative performances. In modern applications of machine learning, the models being considered are increasingly more expensive to evaluate and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-21 Anant Raj , Cameron Musco , Lester Mackey , Nicolo Fusi

Deep learning models are widely used across computer vision and other domains. When working on the model induction, selecting the right architecture for a given dataset often relies on repetitive trial-and-error procedures. This procedure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yen-Chia Chen , Hsing-Kuo Pao , Hanjuan Huang

In modern data analysis, sparse model selection becomes inevitable once the number of predictors variables is very high. It is well-known that model selection procedures like the Lasso or Boosting tend to overfit on real data. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Tino Werner

Transductive inference is an effective means of tackling the data deficiency problem in few-shot learning settings. A popular transductive inference technique for few-shot metric-based approaches, is to update the prototype of each class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Seong Min Kye , Hae Beom Lee , Hoirin Kim , Sung Ju Hwang

With the wide adoption of machine learning techniques, requirements have evolved beyond sheer high performance, often requiring models to be trustworthy. A common approach to increase the trustworthiness of such systems is to allow them to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Andrea Pugnana , Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

Calibration is a well-studied property of predictors which guarantees meaningful uncertainty estimates. Multicalibration is a related notion -- originating in algorithmic fairness -- which requires predictors to be simultaneously calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Dutch Hansen , Siddartha Devic , Preetum Nakkiran , Vatsal Sharan

We consider the model selection task in the stochastic contextual bandit setting. Suppose we are given a collection of base contextual bandit algorithms. We provide a master algorithm that combines them and achieves the same performance, up…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Aurélien F. Bibaut , Antoine Chambaz , Mark J. van der Laan

Several new methods have been proposed for performing valid inference after model selection. An older method is sampling splitting: use part of the data for model selection and part for inference. In this paper we revisit sample splitting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-04 Alessandro Rinaldo , Larry Wasserman , Max G'Sell , Jing Lei

Confidence estimation, a task that aims to evaluate the trustworthiness of the model's prediction output during deployment, has received lots of research attention recently, due to its importance for the safe deployment of deep models.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Haoxuan Qu , Yanchao Li , Lin Geng Foo , Jason Kuen , Jiuxiang Gu , Jun Liu

Selective regression allows abstention from prediction if the confidence to make an accurate prediction is not sufficient. In general, by allowing a reject option, one expects the performance of a regression model to increase at the cost of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Abhin Shah , Yuheng Bu , Joshua Ka-Wing Lee , Subhro Das , Rameswar Panda , Prasanna Sattigeri , Gregory W. Wornell

We introduce a novel machine learning method called the Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine based on the Gabriel edited set for the computation of the probability of failure for a complex system as determined by a threshold condition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Jacob Zhu , Donald Estep

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

Refining one's hypotheses in the light of data is a common scientific practice; however, the dependency on the data introduces selection bias and can lead to specious statistical analysis. An approach for addressing this is via conditioning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Jen Ning Lim , Makoto Yamada , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Yoshikazu Terada , Shigeyuki Matsui , Hidetoshi Shimodaira