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In this manuscript, we consider a finite multivariate nonparametric mixture model where the dependence between the marginal densities is modeled using the copula device. Pseudo EM stochastic algorithms were recently proposed to estimate all…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-14 Michael Levine , Gildas Mazo

In this article, we develop fully Bayesian, copula-based, spatial-statistical models for large, noisy, incomplete, and non-Gaussian spatial data. Our approach includes novel constructions of copulas that accommodate a spatial-random-effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Alan Pearse , David Gunawan , Noel Cressie

Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-09-11 Rémy Chicheportiche , Anirban Chakraborti

When we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a stochastic system, the simulation often contains input distributions estimated from real-world data; therefore, there is both simulation and input uncertainty in the performance…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Wei Xie , Barry L. Nelson , Russell R. Barton

With growing complexity and criticality of automated driving functions in road traffic and their operational design domains (ODD), there is increasing demand for covering significant proportions of development, validation, and verification…

Copulas provide an attractive approach for constructing multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of explicitly forecasting…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-22 Feng Li , Yanfei Kang

This paper proposes a modelling strategy to infer the impact of a covariate on the dependence structure of right-censored clustered event time data. The joint survival function of the event times is modelled using a parametric conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-07 Candida Geerdens , Elif Fidan Acar , Paul Janssen

Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and across time points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence and can conveniently capture both types of dependence in the same model. We derive the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-16 Thomas Nagler , Daniel Krüger , Aleksey Min

Copula modelling has in the past decade become a standard tool in many areas of applied statistics. However, a largely neglected aspect concerns the design of related experiments. Particularly the issue of whether the estimation of copula…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-12 Elisa Perrone , Werner G. Müller

In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-11 Lídia M. André , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Adrian O'Hagan

The autologistic model and related auto-models, commonly applied as autocovariate regression, offer distinct advantages for analysing spatially autocorrelated ecological data. However, comparative studies by Carl and K\"uhn (Ecol. Model.,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-01-28 David C. Bardos , Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita , Brendan A. Wintle

This paper proposes a new method to generate synthetic data sets based on copula models. Our goal is to produce surrogate data resembling real data in terms of marginal and joint distributions. We present a complete and reliable algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-01 Regis Houssou , Mihai-Cezar Augustin , Efstratios Rappos , Vivien Bonvin , Stephan Robert-Nicoud

The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-02 José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , James Robert Lloyd , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

In this paper, we derive copula-based and empirical dependency models (DMs) for simulating non-independent variables, and then propose a new way for determining the distribution of the model outputs conditional on every subset of inputs.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-12 Matieyendou Lamboni

Several collective risk models have recently been proposed by relaxing the widely used but controversial assumption of independence between claim frequency and severity. Approaches include the bivariate copula model, random effect model,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-11 Rosy Oh , Jae Youn Ahn , Woojoo Lee

Extreme values geostatistics make it possible to model the asymptotic behaviors of random phenomena which depends on space or time parameters. In this paper, we propose new models of the extremal coefficient within a spatial stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-05 Ouoba Fabrice , Diakarya Barro , Hay Yoba Talkibing

The partial correlation coefficient is a commonly used measure to assess the conditional dependence between two random variables. We provide a thorough explanation of the partial copula, which is a natural generalization of the partial…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-13 Fabian Spanhel , Malte S. Kurz

Copulas are now frequently used to construct or estimate multivariate distributions because of their ability to take into account the multivariate dependence of the different variables while separately specifying marginal distributions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-02 Mohamad A. Khaled , Robert Kohn

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are, however, difficult to characterize. Here, we…

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