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The linearised Laplace method for estimating model uncertainty has received renewed attention in the Bayesian deep learning community. The method provides reliable error bars and admits a closed-form expression for the model evidence,…

We introduce a new copula-based correction for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) within the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models. While INLA is usually…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-16 Egil Ferkingstad , Håvard Rue

Uncertainty estimation is essential for robust decision-making in the presence of ambiguous or out-of-distribution inputs. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are classical kernel-based models that offer principled uncertainty quantification and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Albert Saiapin , Kim Batselier

Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) has been a successful approximate Bayesian inference framework since its proposal by Rue et al. (2009). The increased computational efficiency and accuracy when compared with sampling-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Janet van Niekerk , Elias Krainski , Denis Rustand , Haavard Rue

There is a growing demand for performing larger-scale Bayesian inference tasks, arising from greater data availability and higher-dimensional model parameter spaces. In this work we present parallelization strategies for the methodology of…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-12 Lisa Gaedke-Merzhäuser , Janet van Niekerk , Olaf Schenk , Håvard Rue

The Laplace approximation (LA) to posteriors is a ubiquitous tool to simplify Bayesian computation, particularly in the high-dimensional settings arising in Bayesian inverse problems. Precisely quantifying the LA accuracy is a challenging…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Anya Katsevich , Vladimir Spokoiny

The Laplace approximation provides a scalable and efficient means of quantifying weight-space uncertainty in deep neural networks, enabling the application of Bayesian tools such as predictive uncertainty and model selection via Occam's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Tobias Weber , Bálint Mucsányi , Lenard Rommel , Thomas Christie , Lars Kasüschke , Marvin Pförtner , Philipp Hennig

Laplace approximations are classic, computationally lightweight means for constructing Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). As in other approximate BNNs, one cannot necessarily expect the induced predictive uncertainty to be calibrated. Here we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Agustinus Kristiadi , Matthias Hein , Philipp Hennig

In Bayesian inference, making deductions about a parameter of interest requires one to sample from or compute an integral against a posterior distribution. A popular method to make these computations cheaper in high-dimensional settings is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-10 Anya Katsevich

This work extends the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method to latent models outside the scope of latent Gaussian models, where independent components of the latent field can have a near-Gaussian distribution. The proposed…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-14 Thiago G. Martins , Håvard Rue

The generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) optimization method incorporates curvature estimates into its solution steps, and provides a good approximation to the Newton method for large-scale optimization problems. GGN has been found particularly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-24 Adeyemi D. Adeoye , Philipp Christian Petersen , Alberto Bemporad

Data augmentation is commonly applied to improve performance of deep learning by enforcing the knowledge that certain transformations on the input preserve the output. Currently, the data augmentation parameters are chosen by human effort…

With the strengths of both deep learning and kernel methods like Gaussian Processes (GPs), Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) has gained considerable attention in recent years. From the computational perspective, however, DKL becomes challenging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Wenyuan Zhao , Haoyuan Chen , Tie Liu , Rui Tuo , Chao Tian

We develop variational Laplace for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) which exploits a local approximation of the curvature of the likelihood to estimate the ELBO without the need for stochastic sampling of the neural-network weights. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-21 Ali Unlu , Laurence Aitchison

We develop variational Laplace for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) which exploits a local approximation of the curvature of the likelihood to estimate the ELBO without the need for stochastic sampling of the neural-network weights. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-11 Ali Unlu , Laurence Aitchison

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a deterministic approach to Bayesian inference on latent Gaussian models (LGMs) and focuses on fast and accurate approximation of posterior marginals for the parameters in the models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-05 Martin Outzen Berild , Sara Martino , Virgilio Gómez-Rubio , Håvard Rue

The inductive biases of trained neural networks are difficult to understand and, consequently, to adapt to new settings. We study the inductive biases of linearizations of neural networks, which we show to be surprisingly good summaries of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-29 Wesley J. Maddox , Shuai Tang , Pablo Garcia Moreno , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Andreas Damianou

The key operation in Bayesian inference, is to compute high-dimensional integrals. An old approximate technique is the Laplace method or approximation, which dates back to Pierre- Simon Laplace (1774). This simple idea approximates the…

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Nikolaos Gianniotis

Neural additive models (NAMs) enhance the transparency of deep neural networks by handling input features in separate additive sub-networks. However, they lack inherent mechanisms that provide calibrated uncertainties and enable selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Kouroche Bouchiat , Alexander Immer , Hugo Yèche , Gunnar Rätsch , Vincent Fortuin