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Most research designing novel predictive models, or employing existing ones, assumes that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. In practice, the data encountered at serving time often deviate from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Hanyu Duan , Yi Yang , Ahmed Abbasi , Kar Yan Tam

As artificial intelligence is increasingly affecting all parts of society and life, there is growing recognition that human interpretability of machine learning models is important. It is often argued that accuracy or other similar…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Kush R. Varshney , Prashant Khanduri , Pranay Sharma , Shan Zhang , Pramod K. Varshney

Concept shift occurs when the distribution of labels conditioned on the features changes between domains, which can make even a well-tuned ML model miscalibrated on a new domain. Identifying these shifted features provides unique insight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Ruiqi Lyu , Alistair Turcan , Bryan Wilder

Statistical modeling is a powerful tool for developing and testing theories by way of causal explanation, prediction, and description. In many disciplines there is near-exclusive use of statistical modeling for causal explanation and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-06 Galit Shmueli

We propose a graph-oriented attention-based explainability method for tabular data. Tasks involving tabular data have been solved mostly using traditional tree-based machine learning models which have the challenges of feature selection and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Andrea Treviño Gavito , Diego Klabjan , Jean Utke

Classifier predictions often rely on the assumption that new observations come from the same distribution as training data. When the underlying distribution changes, so does the optimal classification rule, and performance may degrade. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-01 Ciaran Evans , Max G'Sell

A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-17 Nilesh Tripuraneni , Ben Adlam , Jeffrey Pennington

Linear approximations to the decision boundary of a complex model have become one of the most popular tools for interpreting predictions. In this paper, we study such linear explanations produced either post-hoc by a few recent methods or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-31 Maruan Al-Shedivat , Avinava Dubey , Eric P. Xing

Evaluating robustness under temporal distribution shift remains an open challenge. Existing metrics quantify the average decline in performance, but fail to capture how models adapt to evolving data. As a result, temporal degradation is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Lorenzo Iovine , Giacomo Ziffer , Emanuele Della Valle

Machine learning on data streams is increasingly more present in multiple domains. However, there is often data distribution shift that can lead machine learning models to make incorrect decisions. While there are automatic methods to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 João Palmeiro , Beatriz Malveiro , Rita Costa , David Polido , Ricardo Moreira , Pedro Bizarro

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Sean Kulinski , Saurabh Bagchi , David I. Inouye

Interpretability research often aims to predict how a model will respond to targeted interventions on specific mechanisms. However, it rarely predicts how a model will respond to unseen input data. This paper explores the promises and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Victoria R. Li , Jenny Kaufmann , Martin Wattenberg , David Alvarez-Melis , Naomi Saphra

Explaining the behavior of black box machine learning models through human interpretable rules is an important research area. Recent work has focused on explaining model behavior locally i.e. for specific predictions as well as globally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-17 Sukriti Verma , Nikaash Puri , Piyush Gupta , Balaji Krishnamurthy

Despite their impressive performance on a wide variety of tasks, modern language models remain susceptible to distribution shifts, exhibiting brittle behavior when evaluated on data that differs in distribution from their training data. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Victoria Lin , Louis-Philippe Morency , Eli Ben-Michael

Since their introduction a year ago, distributional approaches to reinforcement learning (distributional RL) have produced strong results relative to the standard approach which models expected values (expected RL). However, aside from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-22 Clare Lyle , Pablo Samuel Castro , Marc G. Bellemare

Recent studies of generalization in deep learning have observed a puzzling trend: accuracies of models on one data distribution are approximately linear functions of the accuracies on another distribution. We explain this trend under an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Horia Mania , Suvrit Sra

With the growing pervasiveness of artificial intelligence, the ability to explain the inferences made by machine learning models has become increasingly important. Numerous techniques for model explainability have been proposed, with…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Nicola Rossberg , Bennett Kleinberg , Barry O'Sullivan , Luca Longo , Andrea Visentin

We study the problem of distribution shift generally arising in machine-learning augmented hybrid simulation, where parts of simulation algorithms are replaced by data-driven surrogates. We first establish a mathematical framework to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Jiaxi Zhao , Qianxiao Li

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Guangzheng Zhong , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

Sampling biases can cause distribution shifts between train and test datasets for supervised learning tasks, obscuring our ability to understand the generalization capacity of a model. This is especially important considering the wide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Max Vargas , Adam Tsou , Andrew Engel , Tony Chiang