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Despite the major progress of deep models as learning machines, uncertainty estimation remains a major challenge. Existing solutions rely on modified loss functions or architectural changes. We propose to compensate for the lack of built-in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-27 Nataša Tagasovska , Firat Ozdemir , Axel Brando

Copulas provide a modular parameterization of multivariate distributions that decouples the modeling of marginals from the dependencies between them. Gaussian Mixture Copula Model (GMCM) is a highly flexible copula that can model many kinds…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Siva Rajesh Kasa , Vaibhav Rajan

In this paper we propose a flexible class of multivariate nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models, based on copulas. More precisely, we assume that the observation equation and the state equation are defined by copula families that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-04 Alexander Kreuzer , Luciana Dalla Valle , Claudia Czado

We consider the problem of variable selection in regression models. In particular, we are interested in selecting explanatory covariates linked with the response variable and we want to determine which covariates are relevant, that is which…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-09 Anne Gégout-Petit , Aurélie Gueudin-Muller , Clémence Karmann

We develop a novel Bayesian method to select important predictors in regression models with multiple responses of diverse types. A sparse Gaussian copula regression model is used to account for the multivariate dependencies between any…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Angelos Alexopoulos , Leonardo Bottolo

Gaussian copulas are widely used in the industry to correlate two random variables when there is no prior knowledge about the co-dependence between them. The perturbed Gaussian copula approach allows introducing the skew information of both…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-02-10 Alberto Elices , Jean-Pierre Fouque

We introduce a new goodness-of-fit test for regular vine (R-vine) copula models. R-vine copulas are a very flexible class of multivariate copulas based on a pair-copula construction (PCC). The test arises from the information matrix…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-05 Ulf Schepsmeier

In statistics, time-to-event analysis methods traditionally focus on the estimation of hazards. In recent years, machine learning methods have been proposed to directly predict the event times. We propose a method based on vine copula…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-16 Shenyi Pan , Harry Joe

Graphical models are an important tool in exploring relationships between variables in complex, multivariate data. Methods for learning such graphical models are well developed in the case where all variables are either continuous or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-15 Konstantin Göbler , Anne Miloschewski , Mathias Drton , Sach Mukherjee

We propose an extensive simulation study to compare some variable selection procedures in a high-dimensional framework. Assuming that the relationship between the actives variables and the response variable is linear, the high-dimensional…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-21 Perrine Lacroix , Mélina Gallopin , Marie-Laure Martin

Learning the joint dependence of discrete variables is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with many applications including prediction, clustering and dimensionality reduction. More recently, the framework of copula modeling has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-11-15 Alfredo Kalaitzis , Ricardo Silva

A pair-copula construction is a decomposition of a multivariate copula into a structured system, called regular vine, of bivariate copulae or pair-copulae. The standard practice is to model these pair-copulae parametrically, which comes at…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-26 Ingrid Hobaek Haff , Johan Segers

Our article considers a Gaussian variational approximation of the posterior density in a high-dimensional state space model. The variational parameters to be optimized are the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the approximation. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-20 Matias Quiroz , David J. Nott , Robert Kohn

We demonstrate how the uncertainty of parameter point estimates can be assessed in a maximum likelihood framework in order to prevent overfitting and erroneous detection of time-inhomogeneity. The class of models we consider are regular…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-23 Jakob Stöber , Ulf Schepsmeier

Missing values with mixed data types is a common problem in a large number of machine learning applications such as processing of surveys and in different medical applications. Recently, Gaussian copula models have been suggested as a means…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-02 Benjamin Christoffersen , Mark Clements , Keith Humphreys , Hedvig Kjellström

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-24 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Zoubin Ghahramani

We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-03 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei , Edoardo M. Airoldi

This paper proposes multivariate copula models for hierarchical data. They account for two types of correlation: one is between variables measured on the same unit and the other is a correlation between units in the same cluster. This model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-24 Talagbe Gabin Akpo , Louis-Paul Rivest

Consider a case-control study in which we have a random sample, constructed in such a way that the proportion of cases in our sample is different from that in the general population---for instance, the sample is constructed to achieve a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-01 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel Candes

Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-26 Evgeny Levi , Radu V. Craiu
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