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Identifying key influencers from time series data without a known prior network structure is a challenging problem in various applications, from crime analysis to social media. While much work has focused on event-based time series…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-04-30 Naratip Santitissadeekorn , Martin Short , David J. B. Lloyd

Analyzing point patterns with linear structures has recently been of interest in e.g. neuroscience and geography. To detect anisotropy in such cases, we introduce a functional summary statistic, called the cylindrical $K$-function, since it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-29 Jesper Møller , Farzaneh Safavimanesh , Jakob G. Rasmussen

This paper presents a Bayesian generative model for dependent Cox point processes, alongside an efficient inference scheme which scales as if the point processes were modelled independently. We can handle missing data naturally, infer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-07-28 Tom Gunter , Chris Lloyd , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

Heterogeneous panel data models that allow the coefficients to vary across individuals and/or change over time have received increasingly more attention in statistics and econometrics. This paper proposes a two-dimensional heterogeneous…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-22 Wei Wang , Xiaodong Yan , Yanyan Ren , Zhijie Xiao

We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Teppei Ogihara , Nakahiro Yoshida

We are studying the problems of modeling and inference for multivariate count time series data with Poisson marginals. The focus is on linear and log-linear models. For studying the properties of such processes we develop a novel conceptual…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-10 Paul Doukhan , Konstantinos Fokianos , Bård Støve , Dag Tjøstheim

Stochastic models of point patterns in space and time are widely used to issue forecasts or assess risk, and often they affect societally relevant decisions. We adapt the concept of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules,…

This paper establishes (set) identification results in a dynamic dyadic network formation model with time-varying observed covariates, lagged local network statistics, and unobserved heterogeneity in the form of fixed effects. Our framework…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-10 Wayne Yuan Gao , Yi Niu

Numerous studies grounded on Hawkes processes have been carried out in many fields including finance, biology and social network. Hawkes processes form a class of selfexciting simple point processes. In this article, we consider a general…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Bartholomé Vieille , Rachid Senoussi , Samuel Soubeyrand

This article presents a new mathematical framework to perform statistical analysis on time-indexed sequences of 2D or 3D shapes. At the core of this statistical analysis is the task of time interpolation of such data. Current models in use…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-03-23 Alain Trouvé , François-Xavier Vialard

Network data often take the form of repeated interactions between senders and receivers tabulated over time. A primary question to ask of such data is which traits and behaviors are predictive of interaction. To answer this question, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-09 Patrick O. Perry , Patrick J. Wolfe

A multiscale scheme combining molecular dynamics (MD) and microscopic phase-field theory is proposed to study the structural phase transformations in solids with inhomogeneous strain field. The approach calculates strain response based on…

Materials Science · Physics 2007-05-23 Zhi-Rong Liu , Huajian Gao

This paper introduces a new approach to inferring the second order properties of a multivariate log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) with a complex intensity function. We assume a semi-parametric model for the multivariate intensity function…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-05 Kristian Bjørn Hessellund , Ganggang Xu , Yongtao Guan , Rasmus Waagepetersen

We study point processes on $\mathbb S^d$, the $d$-dimensional unit sphere $\mathbb S^d$, considering both the isotropic and the anisotropic case, and focusing mostly on the spherical case $d=2$. The first part studies reduced Palm…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-14 Jesper Møller , Ege Rubak

We present a study of buoyancy-driven variable-density homogeneous turbulence, using a two-point spectral closure model. We compute the time-evolution of the spectral distribution in wavenumber $k$ of the correlation of density and…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-07-13 Nairita Pal , Susan Kurien , Timothy Clark , Denis Aslangil , Daniel Livescu

Atmospheric trace-gas inversion refers to any technique used to predict spatial and temporal fluxes using mole-fraction measurements and atmospheric simulations obtained from computer models. Studies to date are most often of a…

This paper presents an alternative approach of analyzing possibly multitype point patterns in space and space-time that occur on network structures, and introduces several different graph-related intensity measures. The proposed formalism…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-18 Matthias Eckardt , Jorge Mateu

We study mass fluxes in aggregation models where mass transfer to large scales by aggregation occurs alongside desorption or fragmentation. Two models are considered. (1) A system of diffusing, aggregating particles with influx and outflux…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Colm Connaughton , R. Rajesh , Oleg Zaboronski

This paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-10 Janine B. Illian , Sigrunn H. Sørbye , Håvard Rue

In this paper, we propose a statistical aggregation method for agent-based models with heterogeneous agents that interact both locally on a complex adaptive network and globally on a market. The method combines three approaches from…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-11-04 Jakob J. Kolb , Finn Müller-Hansen , Jürgen Kurths , Jobst Heitzig
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