Related papers: Efficient variational approximations for state spa…
Motivated by the maneuvering target tracking with sensors such as radar and sonar, this paper considers the joint and recursive estimation of the dynamic state and the time-varying process noise covariance in nonlinear state space models.…
This paper is considered with joint estimation of state and time-varying noise covariance matrices in non-linear stochastic state space models. We present a variational Bayes and Gaussian filtering based algorithm for efficient computation…
In stochastic variational inference, the variational Bayes objective function is optimized using stochastic gradient approximation, where gradients computed on small random subsets of data are used to approximate the true gradient over the…
Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…
This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…
Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…
The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…
Several studies explore inferences based on stochastic volatility (SV) models, taking into account the stylized facts of return data. The common problem is that the latent parameters of many volatility models are high-dimensional and…
We present an adaptive smoother for linear state-space models with unknown process and measurement noise covariances. The proposed method utilizes the variational Bayes technique to perform approximate inference. The resulting smoother is…
One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many…
Using a state-space system, I forecasted the US Treasury yields by employing frequentist and Bayesian methods after first decomposing the yields of varying maturities into its unobserved term structure factors. Then, I exploited the…
We present two approximate Bayesian inference methods for parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models with space-dependent and state-dependent parameters. We demonstrate that these methods provide accurate and…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…
Financial studies require volatility based models which provides useful insights on risks related to investments. Stochastic volatility models are one of the most popular approaches to model volatility in such studies. The asset returns…
Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…
We propose a new variational Bayes estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior, and is…
Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…
Estimating time-varying graphical models are of paramount importance in various social, financial, biological, and engineering systems, since the evolution of such networks can be utilized for example to spot trends, detect anomalies,…
Variational Bayes (VB) has shown itself to be a powerful approximation method in many application areas. This paper describes some diagnostics methods which can assess how well the VB approximates the true posterior, particularly with…