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Related papers: Towards Explaining Distribution Shifts

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To meet order fulfillment targets, manufacturers seek to optimize production schedules. Machine learning can support this objective by predicting throughput times on production lines given order specifications. However, this is challenging…

In the field of Machine Learning (ML) and data-driven applications, one of the significant challenge is the change in data distribution between the training and deployment stages, commonly known as distribution shift. This paper outlines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Lakpa Tamang , Mohamed Reda Bouadjenek , Richard Dazeley , Sunil Aryal

Many researchers have identified distribution shift as a likely contributor to the reproducibility crisis in behavioral and biomedical sciences. The idea is that if treatment effects vary across individual characteristics and experimental…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-06 Ying Jin , Kevin Guo , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Distribution shift is a common situation in machine learning tasks, where the data used for training a model is different from the data the model is applied to in the real world. This issue arises across multiple technical settings: from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Nicolas Acevedo , Carmen Cortez , Chris Brooks , Rene Kizilcec , Renzhe Yu

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Haoran Zhang , Harvineet Singh , Marzyeh Ghassemi , Shalmali Joshi

Understanding causal relationships among the variables of a system is paramount to explain and control its behavior. For many real-world systems, however, the true causal graph is not readily available and one must resort to predictions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Elias Eulig , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Patrick Blöbaum , Michaela Hardt , Dominik Janzing

In many applications of optimal transport (OT), the object of primary interest is the optimal transport map. This map rearranges mass from one probability distribution to another in the most efficient way possible by minimizing a specified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Tudor Manole , Larry Wasserman

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Fredrik D. Johansson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Distribution shift is a major source of failure for machine learning models. However, evaluating model reliability under distribution shift can be challenging, especially since it may be difficult to acquire counterfactual examples that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Joshua Vendrow , Saachi Jain , Logan Engstrom , Aleksander Madry

Empirical analyses of ordinal outcomes using repeated cross-sectional data rely on marginal distributions, leaving the joint distribution unobserved and the sources of distributional change unidentified. This paper develops a framework to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Rami V. Tabri

Many modern causal questions ask how treatments affect complex outcomes that are measured using wearable devices and sensors. Current analysis approaches require summarizing these data into scalar statistics (e.g., the mean), but these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Srikar Katta , Harsh Parikh , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Distributionally robust optimization tackles out-of-sample issues like overfitting and distribution shifts by adopting an adversarial approach over a range of possible data distributions, known as the ambiguity set. To balance conservatism…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Golnoosh Farnadi , Samira Samadi

Interpretable classification models are built with the purpose of providing a comprehensible description of the decision logic to an external oversight agent. When considered in isolation, a decision tree, a set of classification rules, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Riccardo Guidotti , Salvatore Ruggieri

The increasing adoption of machine learning tools has led to calls for accountability via model interpretability. But what does it mean for a machine learning model to be interpretable by humans, and how can this be assessed? We focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-06 Dylan Slack , Sorelle A. Friedler , Carlos Scheidegger , Chitradeep Dutta Roy

The performance of learning models often deteriorates when deployed in out-of-sample environments. To ensure reliable deployment, we propose a stability evaluation criterion based on distributional perturbations. Conceptually, our stability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-07 Jose Blanchet , Peng Cui , Jiajin Li , Jiashuo Liu

We study stochastic dynamical systems in settings where only partial statistical information about the noise is available, e.g., in the form of a limited number of noise realizations. Such systems are particularly challenging to analyze and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Liviu Aolaritei , Nicolas Lanzetti , Florian Dörfler

The ability to interpret Machine Learning (ML) models is becoming increasingly essential. However, despite significant progress in the field, there remains a lack of rigorous characterization regarding the innate interpretability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Guy Amir , Shahaf Bassan , Guy Katz

In the real world, planning is often challenged by distribution shifts. As such, a model of the environment obtained under one set of conditions may no longer remain valid as the distribution of states or the environment dynamics change,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Matteo Ceriscioli , Karthika Mohan

Many existing approaches for estimating parameters in settings with distributional shifts operate under an invariance assumption. For example, under covariate shift, it is assumed that $p(y|x)$ remains invariant. We refer to such…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Yujin Jeong , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Supervised fairness-aware machine learning under distribution shifts is an emerging field that addresses the challenge of maintaining equitable and unbiased predictions when faced with changes in data distributions from source to target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Minglai Shao , Dong Li , Chen Zhao , Xintao Wu , Yujie Lin , Qin Tian