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While a broad range of techniques have been proposed to tackle distribution shift, the simple baseline of training on an $\textit{undersampled}$ balanced dataset often achieves close to state-of-the-art-accuracy across several popular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Niladri S. Chatterji , Saminul Haque , Tatsunori Hashimoto

This paper identifies a problem with the usual procedure for L2-regularization parameter estimation in a domain adaptation setting. In such a setting, there are differences between the distributions generating the training data (source…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-23 Wouter M. Kouw , Marco Loog

Many common estimators in machine learning and causal inference are linear smoothers, where the prediction is a weighted average of the training outcomes. Some estimators, such as ordinary least squares and kernel ridge regression, allow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 David Arbour , Harsh Parikh , Bijan Niknam , Elizabeth Stuart , Kara Rudolph , Avi Feller

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates $x$) of training and testing samples $\mathrm{p}_\text{tr}(x)$ and $\mathrm{p}_\text{te}(x)$ are different but the label…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-12 José I. Segovia-Martín , Santiago Mazuelas , Anqi Liu

Machine learning models are often brittle under distribution shift, i.e., when data distributions at test time differ from those during training. Understanding this failure mode is central to identifying and mitigating safety risks of mass…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-04 Alex Nguyen , David J. Schwab , Vudtiwat Ngampruetikorn

When concept shifts and sample scarcity are present in the target domain of interest, nonparametric regression learners often struggle to generalize effectively. The technique of transfer learning remedies these issues by leveraging data or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Haotian Lin , Matthew Reimherr

A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty. Minimizing overall prediction error often encourages models to prioritize informativeness over calibration,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-17 Ádám Jung , Domokos M. Kelen , András A. Benczúr

In the covariate shift learning scenario, the training and test covariate distributions differ, so that a predictor's average loss over the training and test distributions also differ. In this work, we explore the potential of extreme…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-13 Fulton Wang , Cynthia Rudin

Machine learning models used in medical applications often face challenges due to the covariate shift, which occurs when there are discrepancies between the distributions of training and target data. This can lead to decreased predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Mingyang Cai , Thomas Klausch , Mark A. van de Wiel

Token-level reweighting is a simple yet effective mechanism for controlling supervised fine-tuning, but common indicators are largely one-dimensional: the ground-truth probability reflects downstream alignment, while token entropy reflects…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Wenhao Yu , Shaohang Wei , Jiahong Liu , Yifan Li , Minda Hu , Aiwei Liu , Hao Zhang , Irwin King

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is known in practice to be non-robust to distributional shift where the training and the test distributions are different. A suite of approaches, such as importance weighting, and variants of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Runtian Zhai , Chen Dan , Zico Kolter , Pradeep Ravikumar

We consider the transfer of experience samples (i.e., tuples < s, a, s', r >) in reinforcement learning (RL), collected from a set of source tasks to improve the learning process in a given target task. Most of the related approaches focus…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-29 Andrea Tirinzoni , Andrea Sessa , Matteo Pirotta , Marcello Restelli

In this work, we investigate the behavior of ridge regression in an overparameterized binary classification task. We assume examples are drawn from (anisotropic) class-conditional cluster distributions with opposing means and we allow for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Alexander Tsigler , Luiz F. O. Chamon , Spencer Frei , Peter L. Bartlett

Quantification learning deals with the task of estimating the target label distribution under label shift. In this paper, we first present a unifying framework, distribution feature matching (DFM), that recovers as particular instances…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Bastien Dussap , Gilles Blanchard , Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif

In contemporary statistical learning, covariate shift correction plays an important role in transfer learning when distribution of the testing data is shifted from the training data. Importance weighting, as a natural and principle strategy…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-13 Molei Liu , Yi Zhang , Katherine P Liao , Tianxi Cai

This paper studies nonparametric regression with repeated measurements when the response in the target domain is unobservable or costly to collect. We adopt a transfer learning framework that leverages a source domain with observable…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yingxuan Wang , Xiangyu Xing , Wangli Xu

Loss reweighting has shown significant benefits for machine unlearning with large language models (LLMs). However, their exact functionalities are left unclear and the optimal strategy remains an open question, thus impeding the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Puning Yang , Qizhou Wang , Zhuo Huang , Tongliang Liu , Chengqi Zhang , Bo Han

We consider statistical learning problems, when the distribution $P'$ of the training observations $Z'_1,\; \ldots,\; Z'_n$ differs from the distribution $P$ involved in the risk one seeks to minimize (referred to as the test distribution)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-20 Robin Vogel , Mastane Achab , Stéphan Clémençon , Charles Tillier

The ratio between the probability that two distributions $R$ and $P$ give to points $x$ are known as importance weights or propensity scores and play a fundamental role in many different fields, most notably, statistics and machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-11 Parikshit Gopalan , Omer Reingold , Vatsal Sharan , Udi Wieder

Given additional distributional information in the form of moment restrictions, kernel density and distribution function estimators with implied generalised empirical likelihood probabilities as weights achieve a reduction in variance due…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Vitaliy Oryshchenko , Richard J. Smith