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Related papers: Probabilistic Forecasting Methods for System-Level…

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Accurate and reliable energy forecasting is essential for power grid operators who strive to minimize extreme forecasting errors that pose significant operational challenges and incur high intra-day trading costs. Incorporating planning…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Raffael Theiler , Leandro Von Krannichfeldt , Giovanni Sansavini , Michael F. Howland , Olga Fink

Accurate and reliable electricity load forecasts are becoming increasingly important as the share of intermittent resources in the system increases. Distribution System Operators (DSOs) are called to accurately forecast their production and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-11 Pål Forr Austnes , Celia García-Pareja , Fabio Nobile , Mario Paolone

Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-05 Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Anders Løland , Alex Lenkoski

As the energy landscape changes quickly, grid operators face several challenges, especially when integrating renewable energy sources with the grid. The most important challenge is to balance supply and demand because the solar and wind…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Kamal Sarkar

The key contribution of this paper is to propose a classification into two dimensions of the load forecasting studies to decide which forecasting tools to use in which case. This classification aims to provide a synthetic view of the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-03-19 Jonathan Dumas , Bertrand Cornélusse

Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-18 Hossein Sangrody , Morteza Sarailoo , Ning Zhou , Ahmad Shokrollahi , Elham Foruzan

Electric load forecasting is an indispensable component of electric power system planning and management. Inaccurate load forecasting may lead to the threat of outages or a waste of energy. Accurate electric load forecasting is challenging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Linxiao Yang , Rui Ren , Xinyue Gu , Liang Sun

Short term load forecasting has an essential medium for the reliable, economical and efficient operation of the power system. Most of the existing forecasting approaches utilize fixed statistical models with large historical data for…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-05-21 Irfan Ahmad Khan , Adnan Akber , Yinliang Xu

This paper reviews current literature in the field of predictive maintenance from the system point of view. We differentiate the existing capabilities of condition estimation and failure risk forecasting as currently applied to simple…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-12 Kyle Miller , Artur Dubrawski

Despite substantial improvement in the development of forecasting approaches, conditional and dynamic uncertainty estimates ought to be accommodated in decision-making in power system operation and market, in order to yield either…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-20 Faranak Golestaneh , Pierre Pinson , Hoay Beng Gooi

Real time large scale streaming data pose major challenges to forecasting, in particular defying the presence of human experts to perform the corresponding analysis. We present here a class of models and methods used to develop an…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-14 Roi Naveiro , Simón Rodríguez , David Ríos Insua

Accurate load forecasting is essential to the operation of modern electric power systems. Given the sensitivity of electricity demand to weather variability and temporal dynamics, capturing non-linear patterns is essential for long-term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Abhiram Bhupatiraju , Sung Bum Ahn

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-07 Lena Schmid , Moritz Roidl , Markus Pauly

Water demand is a highly important variable for operational control and decision making. Hence, the development of accurate forecasts is a valuable field of research to further improve the efficiency of water utilities. Focusing on…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-12 Jens Kley-Holsteg , Florian Ziel

In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-19 Raksha Ramakrishna , Anna Scaglione , Vijay Vittal

Load forecasting at distribution networks is more challenging than load forecasting at transmission networks because its load pattern is more stochastic and unpredictable. To plan sufficient resources and estimate DER hosting capacity, it…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-21 Hossein Sangrody , Ning Zhou , Xingye Qiao

Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in electricity markets. However, it's inherent variability and uncertainty cause operational challenges and costs as more operating reserves are needed to maintain system reliability.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Yishen Wang , Zhi Zhou , Cong Liu , Audun Botterud

The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not…

Short-term forecasts of energy consumption are invaluable for the operation of energy systems, including low voltage electricity networks. However, network loads are challenging to predict when highly desegregated to small numbers of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-10 Ciaran Gilbert , Jethro Browell , Bruce Stephen

Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-14 You Lin , Ming Yang , Can Wan , Jianhui Wang , Yonghua Song