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The use of MCMC algorithms in high dimensional Bayesian problems has become routine. This has spurred so-called convergence complexity analysis, the goal of which is to ascertain how the convergence rate of a Monte Carlo Markov chain scales…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…
This article introduces BART with Targeted Smoothing, or tsBART, a new Bayesian tree-based model for nonparametric regression. The goal of tsBART is to introduce smoothness over a single target covariate t, while not necessarily requiring…
Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is an intuitive summary statistic for time-to-event random variables, and can be used for measuring treatment effects. Compared to hazard ratio, its estimation procedure is robust against the…
In this paper, we propose Multi-Rate Bandwidth Available in Real Time (MR-BART) to estimate the end-to-end Available Bandwidth (AB) of a network path. The proposed scheme is an extension of the Bandwidth Available in Real Time (BART) which…
In longitudinal observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios. The g-formula is a useful tool for this analysis.…
Hierarchical data with multiple observations per group is ubiquitous in empirical sciences and is often analyzed using mixed-effects regression. In such models, Bayesian inference gives an estimate of uncertainty but is analytically…
In light of widespread evidence of parameter instability in macroeconomic models, many time-varying parameter (TVP) models have been proposed. This paper proposes a nonparametric TVP-VAR model using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART)…
This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…
There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…
Count-compositional data arise in many different fields, including high-throughput sequencing experiments, ecological surveys, and palaeoclimate studies, where a common, important goal is to understand how covariates relate to the observed…
Statistical inference in evolutionary models with site-dependence is a long-standing challenge in phylogenetics and computational biology. We consider the problem of approximating marginal sequence likelihoods under dependent-site models of…
This article introduces a flexible and adaptive nonparametric method for estimating the association between multiple covariates and power spectra of multiple time series. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian sum of trees model to capture…
To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the engine of modern Bayesian statistics, being used to approximate the posterior and derived quantities of interest. Despite this, the issue of how the output from a Markov chain is post-processed and…
We discuss a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) procedure for the random sampling of some one-dimensional lattice paths with constraints, for various constraints. We show that an approach inspired by optimal transport allows us to bound…
This paper studies a Markov chain for phylogenetic reconstruction which uses a popular transition between tree topologies known as subtree pruning-and-regrafting (SPR). We analyze the Markov chain in the simpler setting that the generating…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for drawing samples from smooth probability densities over continuous spaces. We study the variant most widely used in practice, Metropolized…
Existing guarantees in terms of rigorous upper bounds on the generalization error for the original random forest algorithm, one of the most frequently used machine learning methods, are unsatisfying. We discuss and evaluate various…