Related papers: Measure-valued processes for energy markets
We introduce a class of measure-valued processes, which -- in analogy to their finite dimensional counterparts -- will be called measure-valued polynomial diffusions. We show the so-called moment formula, i.e.~a representation of the…
One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement…
In this article we discuss the application of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework Heath et al. [26] to energy markets. The goal of the article is to give a detailed overview of the topic, focusing on practical aspects rather than on theory,…
In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of…
In energy markets, joint historical and implied calibration is of paramount importance for practitioners, yet notoriously challenging due to the need to align historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles from…
We introduce a class of probability measure-valued diffusions, coined polynomial, of which the well-known Fleming--Viot process is a particular example. The defining property of finite dimensional polynomial processes considered by Cuchiero…
We price European-style options written on forward contracts in a commodity market, which we model with an infinite-dimensional Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach. For this purpose we introduce a new class of state-dependent volatility…
We propose and investigate two model classes for forward power price dynamics, based on continuous branching processes with immigration, and on Hawkes processes with exponential kernel, respectively. The models proposed exhibit jumps…
We propose and analyze numerical methods for the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model. To construct the methods, we first discretize the infinite dimensional HJM equation in maturity time variable using quadrature rules for approximating the…
We present a function-valued stochastic volatility model designed to capture the continuous-time evolution of forward curves in fixed-income or commodity markets. The dynamics of the (logarithmic) forward curves are defined by a…
We consider non-concave and non-smooth random utility functions with do- main of definition equal to the non-negative half-line. We use a dynamic pro- gramming framework together with measurable selection arguments to establish both the…
We consider nonlinear drift-diffusion equations (both porous medium equations and fast diffusion equations) with a measure-valued external force. We establish existence of nonnegative weak solutions satisfying gradient estimates, provided…
In this paper we introduce a flexible HJM-type framework that allows for consistent modelling of intraday, spot, futures, and option prices. This framework is based on stochastic processes with economic interpretations and consistent with…
We construct a measure-valued branching Markov process associated with a nonlinear boundary value problem, where the boundary condition has a nonlinear pseudo monotone branching mechanism term $-\beta$, which includes as a limit case…
We study the pricing of European-style options written on forward contracts within function-valued infinite-dimensional affine stochastic volatility models. The dynamics of the underlying forward price curves are modeled within the…
We develop a unified framework for modeling multiple term structures arising in financial, insurance, and energy markets, adopting an extended Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach under the real-world probability. We study market viability…
We develop cointegration for multivariate continuous-time stochastic processes, both in finite and infinite dimension. Our definition and analysis are based on factor processes and operators mapping to the space of prices and cointegration.…
We statistically analyse a multivariate HJM diffusion model with stochastic volatility. The volatility process of the first factor is left totally unspecified while the volatility of the second factor is the product of an unknown process…
In this paper, we develop a new and effective approach to nonparametric quantile regression that accommodates ultrahigh-dimensional data arising from spatio-temporal processes. This approach proves advantageous in staving off computational…
As a consequence of the financial crises, risk management became more important and real-world dynamics of interest-rate models moved into the focus of interest. Since risk-neutral dynamics are classically important to compute prices of…