Related papers: Forward-Backward Latent State Inference for Hidden…
Characterizing the sleep-wake cycle in adolescents is an important prerequisite to better understand the association of abnormal sleep patterns with subsequent clinical and behavioral outcomes. The aim of this research was to develop hidden…
We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…
Systems of interacting continuous-time Markov chains are a powerful model class, but inference is typically intractable in high dimensional settings. Auxiliary information, such as noisy observations, is typically only available at discrete…
When clustering molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories into a few metastable conformational states, the Markov state models (MSMs) assumption of timescale separation between fast intrastate fluctuations and rarely occurring interstate…
Extracting previously unknown patterns and information in time series is central to many real-world applications. In this study, we introduce a novel approach to modeling financial time series using a deep learning model. We use a Long…
Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be challenging due to the presence of multimodality in the likelihood function, and consequently in the joint posterior distribution, even after correcting for label switching. The…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
In this paper, we study state-feedback control of Markov jump linear systems with partial information. In particular, we assume that the controller can only access the mode signals according to a hidden-Markov observation process. Our…
The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we…
Extending classical probabilistic reasoning using the quantum mechanical view of probability has been of recent interest, particularly in the development of hidden quantum Markov models (HQMMs) to model stochastic processes. However, there…
We consider the task of learning a parametric Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) sequence model without examples of sequences, where the training data consists entirely of aggregate steady-state statistics. Making the problem harder, we…
Pair Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs) are probabilistic models used for pairwise sequence alignment, a quintessential problem in bioinformatics. PHMMs include three types of hidden states: match, insertion and deletion. Most previous studies…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…
Advection-dominated dynamical systems, characterized by partial differential equations, are found in applications ranging from weather forecasting to engineering design where accuracy and robustness are crucial. There has been significant…
Bayesian nonparametric methods have recently transformed emerging areas within data science. One such promising method, the infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM), generalizes the HMM which itself has become a workhorse in single molecule data…
Logical hidden Markov models (LOHMMs) upgrade traditional hidden Markov models to deal with sequences of structured symbols in the form of logical atoms, rather than flat characters. This note formally introduces LOHMMs and presents…
Isolated sign recognition from video streams is a challenging problem due to the multi-modal nature of the signs, where both local and global hand features and face gestures needs to be attended simultaneously. This problem has recently…
In this article a flexible Bayesian non-parametric model is proposed for non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. The model is developed through the amalgamation of the ideas of hidden Markov models and predictor dependent stick-breaking…
Causal probing methods aim to test and control how internal representations influence the behavior of generative models. In causal probing, an intervention modifies hidden states so that a property takes on a different value. Most existing…
Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…