Related papers: Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes with Long…

We consider an optimal investment and risk control problem for an insurer under the mean-variance (MV) criterion. By introducing a deterministic auxiliary process defined forward in time, we formulate an alternative time-consistent problem…

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) precisely characterizes the influence that rare, catastrophic events can exert over decisions. Such characterizations are important for both normal decision-making and for psychiatric conditions such as…

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are standard models for probabilistic systems with non-deterministic behaviours. Long-run average rewards provide a mathematically elegant formalism for expressing long term performance. Value iteration (VI)…

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is the first theory for decision-making under uncertainty that combines full theoretical soundness and empirically realistic features [P.P. Wakker - Prospect theory: For risk and ambiguity, Page 2]. While…

This paper studies the remote estimation of multiple Markov sources over a lossy and rate-constrained channel. Unlike most existing studies that treat all source states equally, we exploit the \emph{semantics of information} and consider…

Real-time coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) is crucial for regulating the voltage profile in distribution grids. By capitalizing on a scalable neural network (NN) architecture, one can attain decentralized DER decisions to…

In this work we want to provide a general principle to evaluate the CVA (Credit Value Adjustment) for a vulnerable option, that is an option subject to some default event, concerning the solvability of the issuer. CVA is needed to evaluate…

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…

The aim of this paper is to investigate risk-averse and distributionally robust modeling of Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) and Markov Decision Process (MDP). We discuss construction of conditional nested risk functionals, a particular…

Though deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has obtained substantial success, it may encounter catastrophic failures due to the intrinsic uncertainty of both transition and observation. Most of the existing methods for safe reinforcement…

In robotic planetary surface exploration, strategic mobility planning is an important task that involves finding candidate long-distance routes on orbital maps and identifying segments with uncertain traversability. Then, expert human…

This paper presents a new method to assess default risk based on applying the CEV process to the KMV model. We find that the volatility of the firm asset value may not be a constant, so we assume the firm's asset value dynamics are given by…

This paper addresses allocation methodologies for a risk measure inherited from ruin theory. Specifically, we consider a dynamic value-at-risk (VaR) measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin…

Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) pricing models need to be both flexible and tractable. The survival probability has to be known in closed form (for calibration purposes), the model should be able to fit any valid Credit Default Swap (CDS)…

This paper proposes control approaches for discrete-time linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances. It employs Kalman filter to estimate the mean and covariance of the state propagation, and the worst-case conditional value-at-risk…

Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…

Whereas classical Markov decision processes maximize the expected reward, we consider minimizing the risk. We propose to evaluate the risk associated to a given policy over a long-enough time horizon with the help of a central limit…

We introduce and study constrained Markov Decision Processes (cMDPs) with anytime constraints. An anytime constraint requires the agent to never violate its budget at any point in time, almost surely. Although Markovian policies are no…

A classic reachability problem for safety of dynamic systems is to compute the set of initial states from which the state trajectory is guaranteed to stay inside a given constraint set over a given time horizon. In this paper, we leverage…

A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal…