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In this manuscript, we investigate importance sampling methods for rare-event simulation in diffusion processes. We show, from a large-deviation perspective, that the resulting importance sampling estimator is log-efficient. This connection…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-12-22 Zhiwei Gao

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

In this paper, we consider an importance sampling problem for a certain rare-event simulations involving the behavior of a diffusion process pertaining to a chain of distributed systems with random perturbations. We also assume that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Getachew K. Befekadu

We study a stochastic optimal control problem for a partially observed diffusion. By using the control randomization method in [4], we prove a corresponding randomized dynamic programming principle (DPP) for the value function, which is…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-12 Elena Bandini , Andrea Cosso , Marco Fuhrman , Huyên Pham

We study optimal control problems for interacting branching diffusion processes, a class of measure-valued dynamics capturing both spatial motion and branching mechanisms. From the perspective of the dynamic programming principle, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-19 Antonio Ocello

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Boualem Djehiche , Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

This paper is devoted to a viscosity solution theory of the stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in the Wasserstein spaces for the mean-field type control problem which allows for random coefficients and may thus be non-Markovian.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-24 Hang Cheung , Jinniao Qiu , Alexandru Badescu

In this paper, we investigate gradient estimate of the Poisson equation and the exponential convergence in the Wasserstein metric $W_{1,d_{l^1}}$, uniform in the number of particles, and uniform-in-time propagation of chaos for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-15 Wei Liu , Liming Wu , Chaoen Zhang

We investigate the long time behavior of weakly dissipative semilinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations and the turnpike property for the corresponding stochastic control problems. To this aim, we develop a probabilistic approach…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-17 Giovanni Conforti

We consider particle systems with mean-field interactions whose distribution is invariant by translations. Under the assumption that the system seen from its centre of mass be reversible with respect to a Gibbs measure, we establish large…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-25 Julien Reygner

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for the simulation of rare events when the underlying dynamics is given by a diffusion. The scheme is based on a Gibbs variational principle that is used to determine the optimal (i.e.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-24 Carsten Hartmann , Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Lorenz Richter

We consider Ising mixed $p$-spin glasses at high-temperature and without external field, and study the problem of sampling from the Gibbs distribution $\mu$ in polynomial time. We develop a new sampling algorithm with complexity of the same…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Ahmed El Alaoui , Andrea Montanari , Mark Sellke

A pathwise large deviation principle in the Wasserstein topology and a pathwise central limit theorem are proved for the empirical measure of a mean-field system of interacting diffusions. The coefficients are path-dependent. The framework…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Louis-Pierre Chaintron

In this paper, we prove a large deviation principle for the empirical measures of a system of weakly interacting diffusion with reflection. We adopt the weak convergence approach. To make this approach work, we show that the sequence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-04 Ping Cheng , Rong Wei , Tusheng Zhang

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We consider a collection of fully coupled weakly interacting diffusion processes moving in a two-scale environment. We study the moderate deviations principle of the empirical distribution of the particles' positions in the combined limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-17 Zachary Bezemek , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new Monte Carlo method based on importance sampling techniques for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The main idea is to combine random walk on squares or rectangles methods with…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-22 Madalina Deaconu , Antoine Lejay

This work concerns the optimal control problem for McKean-Vlasov SDEs. In order to characterize the value function, we develop the viscosity solution theory for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations on the Wasserstein space using…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-19 Jinghai Shao

We establish uniqueness for a class of first-order Hamilton-Jacobi equations with Hamiltonians that arise from the large deviations of the empirical measure and empirical flux pair of weakly interacting Markov jump processes. As a corollary…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-24 Richard C. Kraaij

Stochastic interacting particle systems are widely used to model collective phenomena across diverse fields, including statistical physics, biology, and social dynamics. The McKean-Vlasov equation arises as the mean-field limit of such…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-09-17 Zhiqiang Cai , Chengyu Liu , Xiang Zhou
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