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Parameters of sub-populations can be more relevant than super-population ones. For example, a healthcare provider may be interested in the effect of a treatment plan for a specific subset of their patients; policymakers may be concerned…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-22 Ying Jin , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Following the Bayesian communication learning paradigm, we propose a finite population learning concept to capture the level of information aggregation in any given network, where agents are allowed to communicate with neighbors repeatedly…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-12-13 Jianqing Fan , Xin Tong , Yao Zeng

Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-03 Hao Wang , Xingjian Shi , Dit-Yan Yeung

Probabilities of causation (PoC) are valuable concepts for explainable artificial intelligence and practical decision-making. PoC are originally defined for scalar binary variables. In this paper, we extend the concept of PoC to continuous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Yuta Kawakami , Manabu Kuroki , Jin Tian

Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-22 Lin Ge , Yuzi Zhang , Lance A. Waller , Robert H. Lyles

A topic propagating in a social network reaches its tipping point if the number of users discussing it in the network exceeds a critical threshold such that a wide cascade on the topic is likely to occur. In this paper, we consider the task…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-06-19 Peng Zhang , Wei Chen , Xiaoming Sun , Yajun Wang , Jialin Zhang

Mediation analysis for probabilities of causation (PoC) provides a fundamental framework for evaluating the necessity and sufficiency of treatment in provoking an event through different causal pathways. One of the primary objectives of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-09 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

Population protocols are a relatively novel computational model in which very resource-limited anonymous agents interact in pairs with the goal of computing predicates. We consider the probabilistic version of this model, which naturally…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2022-09-20 Vladyslav Melnychuk

Probabilities of causation provide principled ways to assess causal relationships but face computational challenges due to partial identifiability and latent confounding. This paper introduces both algorithmic simplifications, significantly…

Probabilities of Causation play a fundamental role in decision making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions such as monotonicity. In the absence of such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-06 Numair Sani , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Dominik Janzing

Population protocols [Angluin et al., PODC, 2004] are a model of distributed computation in which indistinguishable, finite-state agents interact in pairs to decide if their initial configuration, i.e., the initial number of agents in each…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-02-10 Javier Esparza , Stefan Jaax , Mikhail Raskin , Chana Weil-Kennedy

We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 José A. Ferreira

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

Probabilities of causation (PoCs) are fundamental quantities for counterfactual analysis and personalized decision making. However, existing analytical results are largely confined to binary settings. This paper extends PoCs to multi-valued…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Xin Shu , Shuai Wang , Ang Li

After data selection, pre-processing, transformation, and feature extraction, knowledge extraction is not the final step in a data mining process. It is then necessary to understand this knowledge in order to apply it efficiently and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-23 Dominik Fisch , Christian Gruhl , Edgar Kalkowski , Bernhard Sick , Seppo J. Ovaska

Frequentists' inference often delivers point estimators associated with confidence intervals or sets for parameters of interest. Constructing the confidence intervals or sets requires understanding the sampling distributions of the point…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-18 Xinran Li , Peng Ding

The causal (belief) network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independencies in a joint probability distribution. The exact methods and the approximation methods, which perform probabilistic inference in causal networks,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Richard E. Neapolitan , James Kenevan

The number of probability distributions required to populate a conditional probability table (CPT) in a Bayesian network, grows exponentially with the number of parent-nodes associated with that table. If the table is to be populated…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2008-08-04 Balaram Das

We consider statistical learning question for $\psi$-weakly dependent processes, that unifies a large class of weak dependence conditions such as mixing, association,$\cdots$ The consistency of the empirical risk minimization algorithm is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-04 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne