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In this paper, we develop connections between two seemingly disparate, but central, models in robust statistics: Huber's epsilon-contamination model and the heavy-tailed noise model. We provide conditions under which this connection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-03 Adarsh Prasad , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Pradeep Ravikumar

This paper establishes the functional convergence of the Extreme Nelson--Aalen and Extreme Kaplan--Meier estimators, which are designed to capture the heavy-tailed behaviour of censored losses. The resulting limit representations can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-22 Martin Bladt , Christoffer Øhlenschlæger

Heavy-tailed distributions, such as the Cauchy distribution, are acknowledged for providing more accurate models for financial returns, as the normal distribution is deemed insufficient for capturing the significant fluctuations observed in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-31 Ganesh Vishnu Avhad , Ananya Lahiri , Sudheesh K. Kattumannil

The Bradley-Terry model is a popular approach to describe probabilities of the possible outcomes when elements of a set are repeatedly compared with one another in pairs. It has found many applications including animal behaviour, chess…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Francois Caron , Arnaud Doucet

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

The Simes inequality has received considerable attention recently because of its close connection to some important multiple hypothesis testing procedures. We revisit in this article an old result on this inequality to clarify and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Sanat K. Sarkar

M-estmators including the Welsch and Cauchy have been widely adopted for robustness against outliers, but they also down-weigh the uncontaminated data. To address this issue, we devise a framework to generate a class of nonconvex functions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-10 Zhi-Yong Wang , Hing Cheung So

We study the approximation of non-negative multi-variate couplings in the uniform norm while matching given single-variable marginal constraints.

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-25 Ugo Bindini , Tapio Rajala

Estimating location is a central problem in functional data analysis, yet most current estimation procedures either unrealistically assume completely observed trajectories or lack robustness with respect to the many kinds of anomalies one…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-24 Ioannis Kalogridis , Stefan Van Aelst

The minimax robust hypothesis testing problem for the case where the nominal probability distributions are subject to both modeling errors and outliers is studied in twofold. First, a robust hypothesis testing scheme based on a relative…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-02-04 Gökhan Gül , Abdelhak M. Zoubir

Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-08 Arka Banerjee , Dootika Vats

We consider families of strongly consistent multivariate conditional risk measures. We show that under strong consistency these families admit a decomposition into a conditional aggregation function and a univariate conditional risk measure…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-27 Hannes Hoffmann , Thilo Meyer-Brandis , Gregor Svindland

We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-17 Stanislav Minsker , Xiaohan Wei

Via a covariance representation based on characteristic functions, a known elementary proof of the Gaussian concentration inequality is presented. A few other applications are briefly mentioned.

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Christian Houdré

Goodness--of--fit tests for the distribution of the composed error term in a Stochastic Frontier Model (SFM) are suggested. The focus is on the case of a normal/gamma SFM and the heavy--tailed stable/gamma SFM. In the first case the moment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-21 Christos K. Papadimitriou , Simos G. Meintanis , Bernardo B. Andrade , Mike G. Tsionas

An expanded family of mixtures of multivariate power exponential distributions is introduced. While fitting heavy-tails and skewness has received much attention in the model-based clustering literature recently, we investigate the use of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-15 Utkarsh J. Dang , Ryan P. Browne , Paul D. McNicholas

Under the assumption that the distribution of a nonnegative random variable $X$ admits a bounded coupling with its size biased version, we prove simple and strong concentration bounds. In particular the upper tail probability is shown to…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Richard Arratia , Peter Baxendale

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we provide a novel characterization of independence of random vectors based on the checkerboard approximation to a multivariate copula. Using this result, we then propose a new family of tests of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-07 José M. González-Barrios , Eduardo Gutiérrez-Peña , Juan D. Nieves , Raúl Rueda

We introduce a class of regularized M-estimators of multivariate scatter and show, analogous to the popular spatial sign covariance matrix (SSCM), that they possess high breakdown points. We also show that the SSCM can be viewed as an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-01 David E. Tyler , Mengxi Yi , Klaus Nordhausen

In a well-calibrated risk prediction model, the average predicted probability is close to the true event rate for any given subgroup. Such models are reliable across heterogeneous populations and satisfy strong notions of algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-31 Jean Feng , Alexej Gossmann , Romain Pirracchio , Nicholas Petrick , Gene Pennello , Berkman Sahiner
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