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The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-18 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan

Many problems in engineering and sciences require the solution of large scale optimization constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). Though PDE-constrained optimization is itself challenging, most applications pose additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders , Roland Herzog

Recent empirical and theoretical analyses of several commonly used prediction procedures reveal a peculiar risk behavior in high dimensions, referred to as double/multiple descent, in which the asymptotic risk is a non-monotonic function of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-26 Pratik Patil , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Yuting Wei , Alessandro Rinaldo

This study investigates uncertainty quantification (UQ) using quantum-classical hybrid machine learning (ML) models for applications in complex and dynamic fields, such as attaining resiliency in supply chain digital twins and financial…

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Scott Koermer , Natalie Klein

Trustworthy deployment of ML models requires a proper measure of uncertainty, especially in safety-critical applications. We focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for classification problems via two avenues -- prediction sets using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-08 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable tools across various applications, making it more important than ever to ensure the quality and the trustworthiness of their outputs. This has led to growing interest in uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Xiaoou Liu , Hua Wei

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Tim Tomov , Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Stephan Günnemann

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

We show that a variety of modern deep learning tasks exhibit a "double-descent" phenomenon where, as we increase model size, performance first gets worse and then gets better. Moreover, we show that double descent occurs not just as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Preetum Nakkiran , Gal Kaplun , Yamini Bansal , Tristan Yang , Boaz Barak , Ilya Sutskever

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Chao Chen , Chenghua Guo , Rui Xu , Jiujiu Chen , Xiangwen Liao , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong , Philip Yu

Double descent is a surprising phenomenon in machine learning, in which as the number of model parameters grows relative to the number of data, test error drops as models grow ever larger into the highly overparameterized (data…

Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in medical image enhancement problems, such as super-resolution or image synthesis. However, to date, little consideration has been given to uncertainty quantification over the output image. Here…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks due to large training datasets and powerful transformer architecture. However, the reliability of responses from LLMs remains a question.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Tiejin Chen , Xiaoou Liu , Longchao Da , Jia Chen , Vagelis Papalexakis , Hua Wei

Conventional statistical wisdom established a well-understood relationship between model complexity and prediction error, typically presented as a U-shaped curve reflecting a transition between under- and overfitting regimes. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Alicia Curth , Alan Jeffares , Mihaela van der Schaar

Recent work has shown that the hidden states of large language models contain signals useful for uncertainty estimation and hallucination detection, motivating a growing interest in efficient probe-based approaches. Yet it remains unclear…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Joe Stacey , Hadas Orgad , Kentaro Inui , Benjamin Heinzerling , Nafise Sadat Moosavi

Uncertainty quantification for complex deep learning models is increasingly important as these techniques see growing use in high-stakes, real-world settings. Currently, the quality of a model's uncertainty is evaluated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Benjamin Kompa , Jasper Snoek , Andrew Beam

Double descent presents a counter-intuitive aspect within the machine learning domain, and researchers have observed its manifestation in various models and tasks. While some theoretical explanations have been proposed for this phenomenon…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Yufei Gu , Xiaoqing Zheng , Tomaso Aste

The double descent phenomenon challenges traditional statistical learning theory by revealing scenarios where larger models do not necessarily lead to reduced performance on unseen data. While this counterintuitive behavior has been…