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A partially identified model, where the parameters can not be uniquely identified, often arises during statistical analysis. While researchers frequently use Bayesian inference to analyze the models, when Bayesian inference with an…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-21 Seren Lee , Paul Gustafson

In this paper, I proof that Importance Sampling estimates based on dependent sample sets are consistent under certain conditions. This can be used to reduce variance in Bayesian Models with factorizing likelihoods, using sample sets that…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-03 Ingmar Schuster

The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this…

One of the main problems of importance sampling in Bayesian networks is representation of the importance function, which should ideally be as close as possible to the posterior joint distribution. Typically, we represent an importance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Changhe Yuan , Marek J. Druzdzel

In ecology we may find scenarios where the same phenomenon (species occurrence, species abundance, etc.) is observed using two different types of samplers. For instance, species data can be collected from scientific sampling with a…

The marginal likelihood is a central tool for drawing Bayesian inference about the number of components in mixture models. It is often approximated since the exact form is unavailable. A bias in the approximation may be due to an incomplete…

Computation · Statistics 2014-11-14 Jeong Eun Lee , Christian P. Robert

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-15 Bradley Efron

Finding the optimal design of experiments in the Bayesian setting typically requires estimation and optimization of the expected information gain functional. This functional consists of one outer and one inner integral, separated by the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Arved Bartuska , Luis Espath , Raúl Tempone

Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-06 Ritabrata Dutta , Paul Blomstedt , Samuel Kaski

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-21 Francesco Bartolucci , Luisa Scaccia , Alessio Farcomeni

Parameter estimation and associated uncertainty quantification is an important problem in dynamical systems characterized by ordinary differential equation (ODE) models that are often nonlinear. Typically, such models have analytically…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-26 Wai Meng Kwok , Sarat Chandra Dass , George Streftaris

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-09 Charles C. Margossian , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Raj Agrawal

Increased access to computing resources has led to the development of algorithms that can run efficiently on multi-core processing units or in distributed computing environments. In the context of Bayesian inference, many parallel computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Daniel Würzler Barreto , Mevin B. Hooten

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics collects data using survey instruments under informative sampling designs that assign probabilities of inclusion to be correlated with the response. The bureau extensively uses Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Terrance D. Savitsky , Sanvesh Srivastava

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jinlin Lai , Charles C. Margossian , Daniel R. Sheldon

A Bayesian inference method for problems with small samples and sparse data is presented in this paper. A general type of prior ($\propto 1/\sigma^{q}$) is proposed to formulate the Bayesian posterior for inference problems under small…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-14 Jingjing He , Xuefei Guan