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We give upper and lower estimates of densities of convolution semigroups of probability measures under explicit assumptions on the corresponding Levy measure and the Levy--Khinchin exponent. We obtain also estimates of derivatives of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Kamil Kaleta , Paweł Sztonyk

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Dan Cunha , Mark Friedl , Luis Carvalho

The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Martin Bladt , Oscar Peralta

We present a Markov approximation for jump-diffusions whose jump part consists in a Hawkes process with intensity driven by a general (possibly non-monotone) kernel. Under minimal integrability conditions, the kernel can be approximated by…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Mahmoud Khabou , Mehdi Talbi

Given a (conservative) symmetric Markov process on a metric space we consider related bilinear forms that generalize the energy form for a particle in an electromagnetic field. We obtain one bilinear form by semigroup approximation and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-04 Michael Hinz

The problem of missing mass in statistical inference (posed by McAllester and Ortiz, NIPS'02; most recently revisited by Changa and Thangaraj, ISIT'2019) seeks to estimate the weight of symbols that have not been sampled yet from a source.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-15 Maciej Skorski

In a first part, we prove Bernstein-type deviation inequalities for bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) under a geometric ergodicity assumption, completing former results of Guyon and Bitseki Penda, Djellout and Guillin. These preliminary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-11 S. Valère Bitseki Penda , Marc Hoffmann , Adélaïde Olivier

We prove what appears to be the first concentration of measure result for hidden Markov processes. Our bound is stated in terms of the contraction coefficients of the underlying Markov process, and strictly generalizes the Markov process…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Leonid Kontorovich

In this paper, we consider Poincar\'e inequalities for non euclidean metrics on $\mathbb{R}^d$. These inequalities enable us to derive precise dimension free concentration inequalities for product measures. This technique is appropriate for…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Nathael Gozlan

We present a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for solving numerically discrete-time measure-valued equations. The associated stochastic processes belong to the class of self-interacting Markov chains. In contrast…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-30 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet

We study weak convergence of empirical processes of dependent data $(X_i)_{i\geq0}$, indexed by classes of functions. Our results are especially suitable for data arising from dynamical systems and Markov chains, where the central limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-07 Herold Dehling , Olivier Durieu , Marco Tusche

We prove concentration inequalities and associated PAC bounds for continuous- and discrete-time additive functionals for possibly unbounded functions of multivariate, nonreversible diffusion processes. Our analysis relies on an approach via…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-15 Cathrine Aeckerle-Willems , Claudia Strauch , Lukas Trottner

In this paper, we consider a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP), with known flow and deterministic transition measure, and unknown jump rate $\lambda$. To estimate nonparametrically the jump rate, we first construct an adaptive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-09 Nathalie Krell , Emeline Schmisser

In this paper, we establish moment and Bernstein-type inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. These inequalities extend the corresponding inequalities for independent random variables. Our conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

In this paper, we establish an abstract framework for the approximation of the invariant probability measure for a Markov semigroup. Following Pag{\`e}s and Panloup [40] we use an Euler scheme with decreasing step (unadjusted Langevin…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-02 Vlad Bally , Yifeng Qin

For Markov jump processes on irreducible networks with finite number of sites, we derive a general and explicit expression of the squared coefficient of variation for the net number of transitions from one site to a connected site in a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-10-28 Alberto Garilli , Diego Frezzato

A piecewise-deterministic Markov process is a stochastic process whose behavior is governed by an ordinary differential equation punctuated by random jumps occurring at random times. We focus on the nonparametric estimation problem of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-24 Romain Azaïs , Aurélie Muller-Gueudin

Motivated by entropic optimal transport, time reversal of Markov jump processes in $\mathbb{R}^n$ is investigated. Relying on an abstract integration by parts formula for the carr\'e du champ of a Markov process recently obtained by…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-05 Giovanni Conforti , Christian Léonard

We prove exponential concentration estimates and a strong law of large numbers for a particle system that is the simplest representative of a general class of models for 2D grain boundary coarsening. The system consists of $n$ particles in…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-28 Joe Klobusicky , Govind Menon

We present two data-driven procedures to estimate the transition density of an homogeneous Markov chain. The first yields to a piecewise constant estimator on a suitable random partition. By using an Hellinger-type loss, we establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-19 Mathieu Sart