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We present new results on average causal effects in settings with unmeasured exposure-outcome confounding. Our results are motivated by a class of estimands, e.g., frequently of interest in medicine and public health, that are currently not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Lan Wen , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

We derive confidence intervals and confidence sequences for causal effects in situations where the back-door or front-door criteria are applicable. Our tightest confidence intervals hold in the standard setting where the training data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Vladimir Vovk , Ruodu Wang

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalisation aims to build a model that can generalise well on an unseen target domain using knowledge from multiple source domains. To this end, the model should seek the causal dependence between inputs and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Toan Nguyen , Kien Do , Duc Thanh Nguyen , Bao Duong , Thin Nguyen

Missing and incorrect values often cause serious consequences. To deal with these data quality problems, a class of common employed tools are dependency rules, such as Functional Dependencies (FDs), Conditional Functional Dependencies…

Databases · Computer Science 2017-10-10 Jizhou Sun , Jianzhong Li , Hong Gao

Causal inference seeks to estimate the effect of an intervention on an outcome using observed data, typically via Rubin's potential-outcome framework or Pearl's do-calculus. Following section 9 of Richardson and Robins (2013), this essay…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Christian Bartels

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

The use of machine learning (ML) in high-stakes societal decisions has encouraged the consideration of fairness throughout the ML lifecycle. Although data integration is one of the primary steps to generate high quality training data, most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-01 Sainyam Galhotra , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Prasanna Sattigeri , Kush R. Varshney

Difference-in-differences (DiD) identification relies mainly on a parallel trends assumption about untreated potential outcomes. Researchers often relax this assumption by assuming conditional parallel trends within units with the same…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Daniela Rodrigues , Laura A. Hatfield

A major challenge in causal discovery from observational data is the absence of perfect interventions, making it difficult to distinguish causal features from spurious ones. We propose an innovative approach, Feature Matching Intervention…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-06 Haoze Li , Jun Xie

The front-door criterion is an identification strategy for the intervention-specific mean outcome in settings where the standard back-door criterion fails due to unmeasured exposure-outcome confounders, but an intermediate variable exists…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Marie S. Breum , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Torben Martinussen , Erin E. Gabriel

Preference-based data often appear complex and noisy but may conceal underlying homogeneous structures. This paper introduces a novel framework of ranking structure recognition for preference-based data. We first develop an approach to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Nan Lu , Jian Shi , Xin-Yu Tian

Algorithmic decisions about individuals require predictions that are not only accurate but also fair with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender and race. Causal notions of fairness align with legal requirements, yet many methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Yoichi Chikahara

False discovery rates (FDR) are an essential component of statistical inference, representing the propensity for an observed result to be mistaken. FDR estimates should accompany observed results to help the user contextualize the relevance…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-12 Megan Hollister Murray , Jeffrey D. Blume

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yonghan Jung

In this paper, we deal with the problem of estimating the intervention effect in the statistical causal analysis using the structural equation model and the causal diagram. The intervention effect is defined as a causal effect on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-17 Shunsuke Horii , Tota Suko

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

For a data-generating process for random variables that can be described with a linear structural equation model, we consider a situation in which (i) a set of covariates satisfying the back-door criterion cannot be observed or (ii) such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-06 Hisayoshi Nanmo , Manabu Kuroki

We consider the problem of estimating causal effects of interventions from observational data when well-known back-door and front-door adjustments are not applicable. We show that when an identifiable causal effect is subject to an implicit…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-13 Jouni Helske , Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

Feature selection is an important problem in machine learning, which aims to select variables that lead to an optimal predictive model. In this paper, we focus on feature selection for post-intervention outcome prediction from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Sofia Triantafillou , Fattaneh Jabbari , Greg Cooper

Interventional causal discovery seeks to identify causal relations by leveraging distributional changes introduced by interventions, even in the presence of latent confounders. Beyond the spurious dependencies induced by latent confounders,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Gongxu Luo , Loka Li , Guangyi Chen , Haoyue Dai , Kun Zhang