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Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

We introduce an approach to counterfactual inference based on merging information from multiple datasets. We consider a causal reformulation of the statistical marginal problem: given a collection of marginal structural causal models (SCMs)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Luigi Gresele , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas M. Kübler , Elke Kirschbaum , Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing

We assume to be given structural equations over discrete variables inducing a directed acyclic graph, namely, a structural causal model, together with data about its internal nodes. The question we want to answer is how we can compute…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber , Dario Azzimonti

Understanding the predictions made by deep learning models remains a central challenge, especially in high-stakes applications. A promising approach is to equip models with the ability to answer counterfactual questions -- hypothetical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Inwoo Hwang , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

Counterfactual explanations provide ways of achieving a favorable model outcome with minimum input perturbation. However, counterfactual explanations can also be leveraged to reconstruct the model by strategically training a surrogate model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Pasan Dissanayake , Sanghamitra Dutta

Counterfactual reasoning, a cornerstone of human cognition and decision-making, is often seen as the 'holy grail' of causal learning, with applications ranging from interpreting machine learning models to promoting algorithmic fairness.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Yahya Aalaila , Gerrit Großmann , Sumantrak Mukherjee , Jonas Wahl , Sebastian Vollmer

Counterfactuals have become a popular technique nowadays for interacting with black-box machine learning models and understanding how to change a particular instance to obtain a desired outcome from the model. However, most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Philip Naumann , Eirini Ntoutsi

Counterfactual explanations emerge as a powerful approach in explainable AI, providing what-if scenarios that reveal how minimal changes to an input time series can alter the model's prediction. This work presents a survey of recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Udo Schlegel , Thomas Seidl

Counterfactual explanations are viewed as an effective way to explain machine learning predictions. This interest is reflected by a relatively young literature with already dozens of algorithms aiming to generate such explanations. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-05 Raphael Mazzine , David Martens

Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Lucas de Lara

Counterfactual explanations are an emerging tool to enhance interpretability of deep learning models. Given a sample, these methods seek to find and display to the user similar samples across the decision boundary. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Cassio F. Dantas , Diego Marcos , Dino Ienco

We consider the problem of estimating counterfactual quantities when prior knowledge is available in the form of disjunctive statements. These include disjunction of conditions (e.g., "the patient is more than 60 years of age") as well as…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-14 Manabu Kuroki

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

We consider the problem of answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries in a causally sufficient setting where only observational data and the causal graph are available. Utilizing the recent developments in diffusion…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Patrick Chao , Patrick Blöbaum , Sapan Patel , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

Counterfactual examples are one of the most commonly-cited methods for explaining the predictions of machine learning models in key areas such as finance and medical diagnosis. Counterfactuals are often discussed under the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Emily Black , Zifan Wang , Matt Fredrikson , Anupam Datta

While recent years have witnessed the emergence of various explainable methods in machine learning, to what degree the explanations really represent the reasoning process behind the model prediction -- namely, the faithfulness of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-07 Yingqiang Ge , Shuchang Liu , Zelong Li , Shuyuan Xu , Shijie Geng , Yunqi Li , Juntao Tan , Fei Sun , Yongfeng Zhang