Related papers: A Geometric Perspective on Bayesian and Generalize…

We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer…

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

Although Bayesian methods are robust and principled, their application in practice could be limited since they typically rely on computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for their implementation. One possible solution…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper…

In Bayesian inference, we are usually interested in the numerical approximation of integrals that are posterior expectations or marginal likelihoods (a.k.a., Bayesian evidence). In this paper, we focus on the computation of the posterior…

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Generalized Fiducial Inference (GFI) is motivated by R.A. Fisher's approach of obtaining posterior-like distributions when there is no prior information available for the unknown parameter. Without the use of Bayes' theorem GFI proposes a…

While linear mixed modeling methods are foundational concepts introduced in any statistical education, adequate general methods for interval estimation involving models with more than a few variance components are lacking, especially in the…

One formulation of forensic identification of source problems is to determine the source of trace evidence, for instance, glass fragments found on a suspect for a crime. The current state of the science is to compute a Bayes factor (BF)…

Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…

Fiducial inference was introduced in the first half of the 20th century by Fisher (1935) as a means to get a posterior-like distribution for a parameter without having to arbitrarily define a prior. While the method originally fell out of…

It is not unusual for a data analyst to encounter data sets distributed across several computers. This can happen for reasons such as privacy concerns, efficiency of likelihood evaluations, or just the sheer size of the whole data set. This…

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Statistical inference more often than not involves models which are non-linear in the parameters thus leading to non-Gaussian posteriors. Many computational and analytical tools exist that can deal with non-Gaussian distributions, and…

We propose a posterior for Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) based on generalized Bayesian inference. To define the posterior, we use Scoring Rules (SRs), which evaluate probabilistic models given an observation. In LFI, we can…

An established and growing literature on generalized fiducial inference and related fiducial ideas points to the adoption of fiducial inference as a mainstream perspective among modern statisticians. Like Bayesian posteriors, generalized…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…

We provide a geometric interpretation to Bayesian inference that allows us to introduce a natural measure of the level of agreement between priors, likelihoods, and posteriors. The starting point for the construction of our geometry is the…

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…