Related papers: FaDIn: Fast Discretized Inference for Hawkes Proce…

We propose a novel approach to marked Hawkes kernel inference which we name the moment-based neural Hawkes estimation method. Hawkes processes are fully characterized by their first and second order statistics through a Fredholm integral…

Asynchronous events sequences are widely distributed in the natural world and human activities, such as earthquakes records, users activities in social media and so on. How to distill the information from these seemingly disorganized data…

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible models that can capture complex structure in large-scale dataset due to their non-parametric nature. However, the usage of GPs in real-world application is limited due to their high computational cost…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are known to provide accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates even with small amounts of labeled data by capturing similarity between data points through their kernel function. However traditional GP kernels…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitous tools for modeling and predicting continuous processes in physical and engineering sciences. This is partly due to the fact that one may employ a Gaussian process as an interpolator while facilitating…

Learning causal structure among event types on multi-type event sequences is an important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the Multivariate Hawkes processes, mostly assumed that each sequence is independent and identically…

We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the…

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are widely used to model the timing and occurrence of events in domains such as social networks, transportation systems, and e-commerce. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM, a novel framework that integrates…

A temporal point process is a stochastic process that predicts which type of events is likely to happen and when the event will occur given a history of a sequence of events. There are various examples of occurrence dynamics in the daily…

The multivariate Hawkes process is a past-dependent point process used to model the relationship of event occurrences between different phenomena.Although the Hawkes process was originally introduced to describe excitation effects, which…

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are stochastic process models used to characterize event sequences occurring in continuous time. Traditional statistical TPPs have a long-standing history, with numerous models proposed and successfully…

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Asynchronous time series, also known as temporal event sequences, are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. Temporal point processes(TPPs) are the standard method for modeling such data. Existing TPP models have…

Gaussian processes (GPs) can provide a principled approach to uncertainty quantification with easy-to-interpret kernel hyperparameters, such as the lengthscale, which controls the correlation distance of function values. However, selecting…

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are often used to represent the sequence of events ordered as per the time of occurrence. Owing to their flexible nature, TPPs have been used to model different scenarios and have shown applicability in…

Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the state-space point process…

We propose a novel probabilistic framework to model continuous-time interaction events data. Our goal is to infer the \emph{implicit} community structure underlying the temporal interactions among entities, and also to exploit how the…