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This paper re-examines the empirical Phillips curve (PC) model and its usefulness in the context of medium-term inflation forecasting. A latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis is formulated and tested using 3,968 randomly generated…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-21 Daniil Bargman , Francesca Medda , Akash Sedai Sharma

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a unifying representation for probabilistic models that support tractable inference. Numerous applications of PCs like controllable text generation depend on the ability to efficiently multiply two circuits.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Honghua Zhang , Benjie Wang , Marcelo Arenas , Guy Van den Broeck

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models that allow efficient, often linear-time, inference of queries such as marginals and most probable explanations (MPE). However, marginal MAP, which is central to many…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-03-07 YooJung Choi , Tal Friedman , Guy Van den Broeck

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a family of generative models which allows for the computation of exact likelihoods and marginals of its probability distributions. PCs are both expressive and tractable, and serve as popular choices for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Andy Shih , Dorsa Sadigh , Stefano Ermon

We present a comprehensive survey of the advancements and techniques in the field of tractable probabilistic generative modeling, primarily focusing on Probabilistic Circuits (PCs). We provide a unified perspective on the inherent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Sahil Sidheekh , Sriraam Natarajan

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are powerful probabilistic models that enable exact and tractable inference, making them highly suitable for probabilistic reasoning and inference tasks. While dominant in neural networks, representation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Steven Braun , Sahil Sidheekh , Antonio Vergari , Martin Mundt , Sriraam Natarajan , Kristian Kersting

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a class of generative models that allow exact and tractable inference for a wide range of queries. While recent developments have enabled the learning of deep and expressive PCs, this increased capacity can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Hrithik Suresh , Sahil Sidheekh , Vishnu Shreeram M. P , Sriraam Natarajan , Narayanan C. Krishnan

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) have emerged as an efficient framework for representing and learning complex probability distributions. Nevertheless, the existing body of research on PCs predominantly concentrates on data-driven parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Athresh Karanam , Saurabh Mathur , Sahil Sidheekh , Sriraam Natarajan

Zhang et al. (ICML 2021, PLMR 139, pp. 12447-1245) introduced probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) as a probabilistic model to unify probabilistic circuits (PCs) and determinantal point processes (DPPs). At a first glance, PGCs store a…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Sanyam Agarwal , Markus Bläser

Deep generative models (DGMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable success in capturing complex probability distributions over graphs. Although their excellent performance is attributed to powerful and scalable deep neural networks, it is,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Milan Papež , Martin Rektoris , Václav Šmídl , Tomáš Pevný

A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-28 John Leland , YooJung Choi

In many scientific disciplines, the features of interest cannot be observed directly, so must instead be inferred from observed behaviour. Latent variable analyses are increasingly employed to systematise these inferences, and Principal…

Designing expressive generative models that support exact and efficient inference is a core question in probabilistic ML. Probabilistic circuits (PCs) offer a framework where this tractability-vs-expressiveness trade-off can be analyzed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Lorenzo Loconte , Stefan Mengel , Antonio Vergari

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models, which admit efficient inference routines depending on their structural properties. In this paper, we introduce md-vtrees, a novel structural formulation of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Benjie Wang , Marta Kwiatkowska

Multi-token prediction (MTP) is a prominent strategy to significantly speed up generation in large language models (LLMs), including byte-level LLMs, which are tokeniser-free but prohibitively slow. However, existing MTP methods often…

Transformer-based language models have become the standard approach to solving natural language processing tasks. However, industry adoption usually requires the maximum throughput to comply with certain latency constraints that prevents…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Haihao Shen , Ofir Zafrir , Bo Dong , Hengyu Meng , Xinyu Ye , Zhe Wang , Yi Ding , Hanwen Chang , Guy Boudoukh , Moshe Wasserblat

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have shown exceptional performance in image generation, yet their large parameter counts incur high computational costs, impeding deployment in resource-constrained settings. To address this, we propose…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Jian Ma , Qirong Peng , Xujie Zhu , Peixing Xie , Chen Chen , Haonan Lu

The ability to manipulate complex systems, such as the brain, to modify specific outcomes has far-reaching implications, particularly in the treatment of psychiatric disorders. One approach to designing appropriate manipulations is to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-05 Austin Talbot , Corey J Keller , David E Carlson , Alex V Kotlar

We develop a scalable class of models for latent variable estimation using composite Gaussian processes, with a focus on derivative Gaussian processes. We jointly model multiple data sources as outputs to improve the accuracy of latent…