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We revisit the fundamental problem of learning with distribution shift, in which a learner is given labeled samples from training distribution $D$, unlabeled samples from test distribution $D'$ and is asked to output a classifier with low…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Adam R. Klivans , Konstantinos Stavropoulos , Arsen Vasilyan

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann

The black box nature of deep learning models complicate their usage in critical applications such as remote sensing. Conformal prediction is a method to ensure trust in such scenarios. Subject to data exchangeability, conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Protim Bhattacharjee , Peter Jung

Existing evaluations of conformal prediction, such as prediction efficiency and test-conditional coverage, are defined in expectation over the calibration data. In practice, when only one calibration set of limited size is available,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Yinjie Min , Liuhua Peng , Changliang Zou

A common approach in positive-unlabeled learning is to train a classification model between labeled and unlabeled data. This strategy is in fact known to give an optimal classifier under mild conditions; however, it results in biased…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-03 Shantanu Jain , Martha White , Predrag Radivojac

This paper develops novel conformal methods to test whether a new observation was sampled from the same distribution as a reference set. Blending inductive and transductive conformal inference in an innovative way, the described methods can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-26 Ziyi Liang , Matteo Sesia , Wenguang Sun

Covariate shift, a widely used assumption in tackling {\it distributional shift} (when training and test distributions differ), focuses on scenarios where the distribution of the labels conditioned on the feature vector is the same, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-24 Deeksha Adil , Jarosław Błasiok

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

A typical desideratum for quantifying the uncertainty from a classification model as a prediction set is class-conditional singleton set calibration. That is, such sets should map to the output of well-calibrated selective classifiers,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Allen Schmaltz , Danielle Rasooly

Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

This paper provides both an introduction to and a detailed overview of the principles and practice of classifier calibration. A well-calibrated classifier correctly quantifies the level of uncertainty or confidence associated with its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

Many important computer vision applications are naturally formulated as regression problems. Within medical imaging, accurate regression models have the potential to automate various tasks, helping to lower costs and improve patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Mariella Dreissig , Florian Piewak , Joschka Boedecker

When split conformal prediction operates in batch mode with exchangeable data, we determine the exact distribution of the empirical coverage of prediction sets produced for a finite batch of future observables, as well as the exact…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-23 Paulo C. Marques F

Proper learning refers to the setting in which learners must emit predictors in the underlying hypothesis class $H$, and often leads to learners with simple algorithmic forms (e.g. empirical risk minimization (ERM), structural risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Julian Asilis , Siddartha Devic , Shaddin Dughmi , Vatsal Sharan , Shang-Hua Teng

Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber

In this paper we develop a principled, probabilistic, unified approach to non-standard classification tasks, such as semi-supervised, positive-unlabelled, multi-positive-unlabelled and noisy-label learning. We train a classifier on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Jeppe Nørregaard , Lars Kai Hansen