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A central problem in sequential decision making is to develop algorithms that are practical and computationally efficient, yet support the use of flexible, general-purpose models. Focusing on the contextual bandit problem, recent progress…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-14 Yinglun Zhu , Dylan J. Foster , John Langford , Paul Mineiro

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) in contextual bandits is crucial for assessing new policies using existing data without costly experimentation. However, current OPE methods, such as Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and Doubly Robust (DR)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-05 Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq , Arnaud Doucet , Rob Cornish , Jean-Francois Ton

Contextual bandit algorithms -- a class of multi-armed bandit algorithms that exploit the contextual information -- have been shown to be effective in solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. A common assumption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-25 Linqi Song , Jie Xu

The rise of large-scale pretrained models has made it feasible to generate predictive or synthetic features at low cost, raising the question of how to incorporate such surrogate predictions into downstream decision-making. We study this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Hao Yan , Heyan Zhang , Yongyi Guo

Incorporating side observations in decision making can reduce uncertainty and boost performance, but it also requires we tackle a potentially complex predictive relationship. While one may use off-the-shelf machine learning methods to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-01 Yichun Hu , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

Providing health monitoring devices with machine intelligence is important for enabling automatic mobile healthcare applications. However, this brings additional challenges due to the resource scarcity of these devices. This work introduces…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-25 Berken Utku Demirel , Luke Chen , Mohammad Abdullah Al Faruque

The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-10-05 Georges Kariniotakis , Pierre Pinson

Contextual bandits are canonical models for sequential decision-making under uncertainty in environments with time-varying components. In this setting, the expected reward of each bandit arm consists of the inner product of an unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-27 Hongju Park , Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh

Over the past decade, contextual bandit algorithms have been gaining in popularity due to their effectiveness and flexibility in solving sequential decision problems---from online advertising and finance to clinical trial design and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-03 Robin van Emden , Maurits Kaptein

Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in electricity markets. However, it's inherent variability and uncertainty cause operational challenges and costs as more operating reserves are needed to maintain system reliability.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Yishen Wang , Zhi Zhou , Cong Liu , Audun Botterud

In networked environments, users frequently share recommendations about content, products, services, and courses of action with others. The extent to which such recommendations are successful and adopted is highly contextual, dependent on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Ahmed Sayeed Faruk , Mohammad Shahverdikondori , Elena Zheleva

The explosion in mobile data traffic together with the ever-increasing expectations for higher quality of service call for the development of AI algorithms for wireless network optimization. In this paper, we investigate how to learn…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Miguel Suau , Alexandros Agapitos , David Lynch , Derek Farrell , Mingqi Zhou , Aleksandar Milenovic

Bandits with covariates, a.k.a. contextual bandits, address situations where optimal actions (or arms) at a given time $t$, depend on a context $x_t$, e.g., a new patient's medical history, a consumer's past purchases. While it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-23 Joseph Suk , Samory Kpotufe

While contextual bandit has a mature theory, effectively leveraging different feedback patterns to enhance the pace of learning remains unclear. Bandits with feedback graphs, which interpolates between the full information and bandit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Mengxiao Zhang , Yuheng Zhang , Olga Vrousgou , Haipeng Luo , Paul Mineiro

We study risk-aware offline policy learning, aiming to learn a decision rule from logged data that is optimal under general risk criteria. This problem is crucial in high-stakes domains where online interaction is infeasible and adverse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-18 Yilong Wan , Yuqiang Li , Xianyi Wu

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-27 Valentin Kilian , Stefano Cortinovis , François Caron

Equitably allocating limited resources in high-stakes domains-such as education, employment, and healthcare-requires balancing short-term utility with long-term impact, while accounting for delayed outcomes, hidden heterogeneity, and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Mohammadsina Almasi , Hadis Anahideh

Contextual linear optimization (CLO) uses predictive contextual features to reduce uncertainty in random cost coefficients in the objective and thereby improve decision-making performance. A canonical example is the stochastic shortest path…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Yichun Hu , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Yanchen Wu

A major challenge in contextual bandits is to design general-purpose algorithms that are both practically useful and theoretically well-founded. We present a new technique that has the empirical and computational advantages of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-06 Dylan J. Foster , Alekh Agarwal , Miroslav Dudík , Haipeng Luo , Robert E. Schapire

Forecasting is an indispensable element of operational research (OR) and an important aid to planning. The accurate estimation of the forecast uncertainty facilitates several operations management activities, predominantly in supporting…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Xiaoqian Wang , Yanfei Kang , Fotios Petropoulos , Feng Li