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This paper investigates off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits, aiming to quantify the performance of a target policy using data collected under a different and potentially unknown behavior policy. Recently, methods based on conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-23 Yilong Wan , Yuqiang Li , Xianyi Wu

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-30 Yufan Zhang , Honglin Wen , Qiuwei Wu , Qian Ai

We propose an estimator and confidence interval for computing the value of a policy from off-policy data in the contextual bandit setting. To this end we apply empirical likelihood techniques to formulate our estimator and confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Nikos Karampatziakis , John Langford , Paul Mineiro

Solutions to address the periodic review inventory control problem with nonstationary random demand, lost sales, and stochastic vendor lead times typically involve making strong assumptions on the dynamics for either approximation or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-26 Dean Foster , Randy Jia , Dhruv Madeka

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation from batched contextual bandit data with multidimensional actions, often termed slates. The problem is common to recommender systems and user-interface optimization, and it is particularly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Nikos Vlassis , Ashok Chandrashekar , Fernando Amat Gil , Nathan Kallus

Forecasting accuracy in highly uncertain environments is challenging due to the stochastic nature of systems. Deterministic forecasting provides only point estimates and cannot capture potential outcomes. Therefore, probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Worachit Amnuaypongsa , Jitkomut Songsiri

Contextual bandits often provide simple and effective personalization in decision making problems, making them popular tools to deliver personalized interventions in mobile health as well as other health applications. However, when bandits…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Jiayu Yao , Emma Brunskill , Weiwei Pan , Susan Murphy , Finale Doshi-Velez

Contextual bandit algorithms are essential for solving many real-world interactive machine learning problems. Despite multiple recent successes on statistically and computationally efficient methods, the practical behavior of these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Alberto Bietti , Alekh Agarwal , John Langford

Contextual bandit algorithms are commonly used in digital health to recommend personalized treatments. However, to ensure the effectiveness of the treatments, patients are often requested to take actions that have no immediate benefit to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Kyra Gan , Esmaeil Keyvanshokooh , Xueqing Liu , Susan Murphy

We propose a contextual-bandit approach for demand side management by offering price incentives. More precisely, a target mean consumption is set at each round and the mean consumption is modeled as a complex function of the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-14 Margaux Brégère , Pierre Gaillard , Yannig Goude , Gilles Stoltz

Most off-policy evaluation methods for contextual bandits have focused on the expected outcome of a policy, which is estimated via methods that at best provide only asymptotic guarantees. However, in many applications, the expectation may…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-27 Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq , Jean-Francois Ton , Rob Cornish , Yee Whye Teh , Arnaud Doucet

Contextual bandit algorithms are ubiquitous tools for active sequential experimentation in healthcare and the tech industry. They involve online learning algorithms that adaptively learn policies over time to map observed contexts $X_t$ to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-19 Ian Waudby-Smith , Lili Wu , Aaditya Ramdas , Nikos Karampatziakis , Paul Mineiro

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) in the problem of slate contextual bandits where a policy selects multi-dimensional actions known as slates. This problem is widespread in recommender systems, search engines, marketing, to medical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Haruka Kiyohara , Masahiro Nomura , Yuta Saito

Information-directed sampling (IDS) has recently demonstrated its potential as a data-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm. However, it is still unclear what is the right form of information ratio to optimize when contextual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-10 Botao Hao , Tor Lattimore , Chao Qin

Contextual bandits are widely used in industrial personalization systems. These online learning frameworks learn a treatment assignment policy in the presence of treatment effects that vary with the observed contextual features of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-11 Claudia Roberts , Maria Dimakopoulou , Qifeng Qiao , Ashok Chandrashekhar , Tony Jebara

We study the offline contextual bandit problem, where we aim to acquire an optimal policy using observational data. However, this data usually contains two deficiencies: (i) some variables that confound actions are not observed, and (ii)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Siyu Chen , Yitan Wang , Zhaoran Wang , Zhuoran Yang

We study the problem of offline policy optimization in stochastic contextual bandit problems, where the goal is to learn a near-optimal policy based on a dataset of decision data collected by a suboptimal behavior policy. Rather than making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Germano Gabbianelli , Gergely Neu , Matteo Papini

We consider the contextual bandit problem where at each time, the agent only has access to a noisy version of the context and the error variance (or an estimator of this variance). This setting is motivated by a wide range of applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Yongyi Guo , Ziping Xu , Susan Murphy

The contextual bandit framework is widely used to solve sequential optimization problems where the reward of each decision depends on auxiliary context variables. In settings such as medicine, business, and engineering, the decision maker…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-17 Kevin Li , Eric Laber

Bandit algorithms sequentially accumulate data using adaptive sampling policies, offering flexibility for real-world applications. However, excessive sampling can be costly, motivating the devolopment of early stopping methods and reliable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Zihan Cui
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