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We study the decaying Burgers dynamics in $d$ dimensions for random Gaussian initial conditions. We focus on power-law initial energy spectra, such that the system shows a self-similar evolution. This is the case of interest for the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-01-19 P. Valageas

In recent years, deep learning has proven to be a viable methodology for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification for a vast number of physical systems. However, in their traditional form, such models can require a large amount of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-12-04 Nicholas Geneva , Nicholas Zabaras

In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-09-21 Jeroen Wouters , Freddy Bouchet

The study of geometric extremes, where extremal dependence properties are inferred from the deterministic limiting shapes of scaled sample clouds, provides an exciting approach to modelling the extremes of multivariate data. These shapes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-16 Callum J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , Reetam Majumder , Jordan Richards

We present a machine learning (ML)-assisted framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale modeling, for (a) detecting tipping points in the emergent behavior of complex systems, and…

Long Short-Term Memory networks trained with gradient descent and back-propagation have received great success in various applications. However, point estimation of the weights of the networks is prone to over-fitting problems and lacks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-05 Chao Chen , Xiao Lin , Gabriel Terejanu

Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Efstratios Manolakis , Anton J. Heckens , Benjamin Köhler , Thomas Guhr

Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is an efficient and effective least-square-based learning algorithm for classification, regression problems based on single hidden layer feed-forward neural network (SLFN). It has been shown in the literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Ramesh Ragala , Bharadwaja kumar

Rare but critical events in complex systems, such as protein folding, chemical reactions, disease progression, and extreme weather or climate phenomena, are governed by complex, high-dimensional, stochastic dynamics. Identifying an optimal…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-03-04 Polina V. Banushkina , Sergei V. Krivov

Aggressive driving is a major cause of traffic accidents and poses a serious threat to road safety. Although deep learning methods have shown promising results in detecting risky driving behaviours from vehicle sensor data, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Hanadi Alhamdan , Ghadah Alosaimi , Amir Atapour-Abarghouei , Farshad Arvin

The abundance of data affords researchers to pursue more powerful computational tools to learn the dynamics of complex system, such as neural networks, engineered systems and social networks. Traditional machine learning approaches capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Yan Shen , Fan Yang , Mingchen Gao , Wen Dong

Nonlinear differential equations are challenging to solve numerically and are important to understanding the dynamics of many physical systems. Deep neural networks have been applied to help alleviate the computational cost that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Bryce Chudomelka , Youngjoon Hong , Hyunwoo Kim , Jinyoung Park

The aim of this work is to detect and automatically generate high-level explanations of anomalous events in video. Understanding the cause of an anomalous event is crucial as the required response is dependant on its nature and severity.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Stanislaw Szymanowicz , James Charles , Roberto Cipolla

This position paper argues that next-generation non-equilibrium-inspired generative models will provide the essential foundation for better modeling real-world complex dynamical systems. While many classical generative algorithms draw…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Jiazhen Liu , Ruikun Li , Huandong Wang , Zihan Yu , Chang Liu , Jingtao Ding , Yong Li

In this paper, we develop a computational approach for computing most likely trajectories describing rare events that correspond to the emergence of non-dominant genotypes. This work is based on the large deviations approach for discrete…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-29 Yingxue Su , Brett Geiger , Ilya Timofeyev , Andreas Mang , Robert Azencott

We investigate the application of artificial neural networks to stabilize proper orthogonal decomposition based reduced order models for quasi-stationary geophysical turbulent flows. An extreme learning machine concept is introduced for…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-05-09 Omer San , Romit Maulik

In this paper, we consider an importance sampling problem for a certain rare-event simulations involving the behavior of a diffusion process pertaining to a chain of distributed systems with random perturbations. We also assume that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Getachew K. Befekadu

This paper proposes a novel fast online methodology for outlier detection called the exception maximization outlier detection method(EMODM), which employs probabilistic models and statistical algorithms to detect abnormal patterns from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Zhikun Zhang , Yiting Duan , Xiangjun Wang , Mingyuan Zhang

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-02 Beate Sick , Torsten Hothorn , Oliver Dürr

Chaotic behavior in dynamical systems poses a significant challenge in trajectory control, traditionally relying on computationally intensive physical models. We present a machine learning-based algorithm to compute the minimum control…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-06-18 David Valle , Rubén Capeáns , Alexandre Wagemakers , Miguel A. F. Sanjuán