Related papers: High Resolution Spatio-Temporal Model for Room-Lev…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
Transmission of highly infectious respiratory diseases, including SARS-CoV-2 are facilitated by the transport of tiny droplets and aerosols (harboring viruses, bacteria, etc.) that are breathed out by individuals and can remain suspended in…
We study the qualitative properties of a spatial diffusive heterogeneous SIR model, that appears in mathematical epidemiology to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a population. The model we consider consists in a system of…
Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via virus-laden aerosols in enclosed spaces poses a significant concern. Elevators, commonly utilized enclosed spaces in modern tall buildings, present a challenge as the impact of varying heating,…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
While most existing epidemic models focus on the influence of isolated factors, infectious disease transmission is inherently shaped by the complex interplay of multiple interacting elements. To better capture real-world dynamics, it is…
We examine the spread of an infectious disease, such as one that is caused by a respiratory virus, with two distinct modes of transmission. To do this, we consider a susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) disease on a hypergraph, which…
In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework that governs the evolution of epidemic dynamics, encompassing both intra-population dynamics and inter-population mobility within a metapopulation network. By linearizing this dynamical…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
It is increasingly important to understand the spatial dynamics of epidemics. While there are numerous mathematical models of epidemics, there is a scarcity of physical systems with sufficiently well-controlled parameters to allow…
Mathematical models in epidemiology are an indispensable tool to determine the dynamics and important characteristics of infectious diseases. Apart from their scientific merit, these models are often used to inform political decisions and…
An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…
Climate change and the rapid growth of urban populations are intensifying environmental stresses within cities, making the behavior of urban atmospheric flows a critical factor in public health, energy use, and overall livability. This…
We present a compartmental SEIRD model aimed at forecasting hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 outbreak. The model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model…
Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic model that describes the probability of…
Developing safety policies to protect large groups of individuals working in indoor environments from disease spread is an important and challenging task. To address this issue, we investigate the scenario of workers becoming infected by a…
COVID-19 is a global health crisis that has had unprecedented, widespread impact on households across the United States and has been declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. According to Centers…