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Natural experiments are a cornerstone of applied economics, providing settings for estimating causal effects with a compelling argument for treatment randomisation, but give little indication of the mechanisms behind causal effects. Causal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-07 Senan Hogan-Hennessy

Large language models (LLMs) trained with reinforcement objectives often achieve superficially correct answers via shortcut strategies, pairing correct outputs with spurious or unfaithful reasoning and degrading under small causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Xiangqi Wang , Yue Huang , Yujun Zhou , Xiaonan Luo , Kehan Guo , Xiangliang Zhang

Causal discovery from observational data is fundamental to scientific fields like biology, where controlled experiments are often impractical. However, existing methods, including constraint-based (e.g., PC, causalMGM) and score-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Zhenjiang Fan , Zengyi Qin , Yuanning Zheng , Bo Xiong , Summer Han

Attention module does not always help deep models learn causal features that are robust in any confounding context, e.g., a foreground object feature is invariant to different backgrounds. This is because the confounders trick the attention…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Tan Wang , Chang Zhou , Qianru Sun , Hanwang Zhang

Understanding the causal effects of text on downstream outcomes is a central task in many applications. Estimating such effects requires researchers to run controlled experiments that systematically vary textual features. While large…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Omri Feldman , Amar Venugopal , Jann Spiess , Amir Feder

Multi-party dialogues are common in enterprise social media on technical as well as non-technical topics. The outcome of a conversation may be positive or negative. It is important to analyze why a dialogue ends with a particular sentiment…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-07 Priyanka Sinha , Pabitra Mitra , Antonio Anastasio Bruto da Costa , Nikolaos Kekatos

Automated clinical risk prediction from electronic health records (EHRs) demands modeling both structured diagnostic codes and unstructured narrative notes. However, most prior approaches either handle these modalities separately or rely on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Xin Zhang , Qiyu Wei , Yingjie Zhu , Fanyi Wu , Sophia Ananiadou

The penultimate goal for developing machine learning models in supply chain management is to make optimal interventions. However, most machine learning models identify correlations in data rather than inferring causation, making it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Mateusz Wyrembek , George Baryannis , Alexandra Brintrup

Apart from the coherence and fluency of responses, an empathetic chatbot emphasizes more on people's feelings. By considering altruistic behaviors between human interaction, empathetic chatbots enable people to get a better interactive and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-10-11 Jiun-Hao Jhan , Chao-Peng Liu , Shyh-Kang Jeng , Hung-Yi Lee

The growing influence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems on decision-making in critical domains has exposed their potential to cause significant harms, often rooted in biases embedded across the AI lifecycle. While existing frameworks…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Nicoleta Tantalaki , Sophia Vei , Athena Vakali

Multimodal recommender systems enhance personalized recommendations in e-commerce and online advertising by integrating visual, textual, and user-item interaction data. However, existing methods often overlook two critical biases: (i) modal…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Jie Yang , Chenyang Gu , Zixuan Liu

In decision-making problems, the outcome of an intervention often depends on the causal relationships between system components and is highly costly to evaluate. In such settings, causal Bayesian optimization (CBO) can exploit the causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Shriya Bhatija , Paul-David Zuercher , Jakob Thumm , Thomas Bohné

Evaluating the quality of open-domain chatbots has become increasingly reliant on LLMs acting as automatic judges. However, existing meta-evaluation benchmarks are static, outdated, and lacking in multilingual coverage, limiting their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-23 John Mendonça , Alon Lavie , Isabel Trancoso

Predicting web service traffic has significant social value, as it can be applied to various practical scenarios, including but not limited to dynamic resource scaling, load balancing, system anomaly detection, service-level agreement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Chang Tian , Mingzhe Xing , Zenglin Shi , Matthew B. Blaschko , Yinliang Yue , Marie-Francine Moens

Predictive maintenance in manufacturing environments presents a challenging optimization problem characterized by extreme cost asymmetry, where missed failures incur costs roughly fifty times higher than false alarms. Predictive maintenance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Shaunak Dhande , Chutian Ma , Giacinto Paolo Saggese , Paul Smith , Krishna Taduri

Randomized experiments or randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are gold standards for causal inference, yet cost and sample-size constraints limit power. We introduce CALM (Causal Analysis leveraging Language Models), a statistical framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Xinrui Ruan , Xinwei Ma , Yingfei Wang , Waverly Wei , Jingshen Wang

Causal inference, a cornerstone in disciplines such as economics, genomics, and medicine, is increasingly being recognized as fundamental to advancing the field of robotics. In particular, the ability to reason about cause and effect from…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Minh Q. Tram , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi

Large-scale human mobility exhibits spatial and temporal patterns that can assist policymakers in decision making. Although traditional prediction models attempt to capture these patterns, they often interfered by non-periodic public…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-17 Xiaojie Yang , Hangli Ge , Jiawei Wang , Zipei Fan , Renhe Jiang , Ryosuke Shibasaki , Noboru Koshizuka

Despite their widespread adoption, neural conversation models have yet to exhibit natural chat capabilities with humans. In this research, we examine user utterances as causes and generated responses as effects, recognizing that changes in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Yi-Lin Tuan , Alon Albalak , Wenda Xu , Michael Saxon , Connor Pryor , Lise Getoor , William Yang Wang

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are an important tool in Algorithmic Recourse for addressing two questions: 1. What are the crucial factors that led to an automated prediction/decision? 2. How can these factors be changed to achieve a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Xuan Zhao , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci