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We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-05-02 Shie Mannor , John Tsitsiklis

The paper provides an overview of the theory and applications of risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. The term 'risk-sensitive' refers here to the use of the Optimized Certainty Equivalent as a means to measure expectation and risk.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-23 Nicole Bäuerle , Anna Jaśkiewicz

Tandem queueing systems are widely-used stochastic models that arise from many real-life service operations systems. Motivated by the desire to understand the trade-off between the performance and complexity of policies for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-04-25 Tonghoon Suk , Xinchang Wang

In this paper we introduce and study renewal-reward processes in random environments where each renewal involves a reward taking values in a Banach space. We derive quenched large deviation principles and identify the associated rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-18 Frank den Hollander , Marco Zamparo

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a popular model for performance analysis and optimization of stochastic systems. The parameters of stochastic behavior of MDPs are estimates from empirical observations of a system; their values are not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-10-26 Dimitri Scheftelowitsch , Peter Buchholz , Vahid Hashemi , Holger Hermanns

We are interested in studying the sensitivity of diffusion processes or their approximations by Markov Chains with respect to a perturbation of the coefficients.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-28 V. Konakov , A. Kozhina , S. Menozzi

In Markov decision processes (MDPs), quantile risk measures such as Value-at-Risk are a standard metric for modeling RL agents' preferences for certain outcomes. This paper proposes a new Q-learning algorithm for quantile optimization in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Jia Lin Hau , Erick Delage , Esther Derman , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Marek Petrik

We consider the problem of estimating expectations by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and improving the accuracy by replacing IID uniform random points with quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) points. Recently, it has been shown that Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-14 Shin Harase

Queueing-inventory systems are integrated systems consisting of two emerging fields in applied probability, namely "Queues" and "Inventory". In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the theory and applications of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-20 Salini K , Arya P S , Manikandan Rangaswamy

For Markov processes with absorption, we provide general criteria ensuring the existence and the exponential non-uniform convergence in total variation norm to a quasi-stationary distribution. We also characterize a subset of its domain of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-24 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

We present a new method for statistical verification of quantitative properties over a partially unknown system with actions, utilising a parameterised model (in this work, a parametric Markov decision process) and data collected from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-06 Elizabeth Polgreen , Viraj Wijesuriya , Sofie Haesaert , Alessandro Abate

The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2007-08-14 K. Balaji Rao

We study a system, where a random flow of customers is served by servers (called agents) invited on-demand. Each invited agent arrives into the system after a random time; after each service completion, an agent returns to the system or…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-28 Lam M. Nguyen , Alexander Stolyar

We introduce a simple method to estimate the system parameters in continuous dynamical systems from the time series. In this method, we construct a modified system by introducing some constants (controlling constants) into the given…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 P. Palaniyandi , M. Lakshmanan

A multi-channel queueing system is considered. The arriving requests differ in their type. Requests of each type arrive according to a Poisson process. The number of channels required for service with the rate equal to 1 depends of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-09 M. V. Yashina , A. G. Tatashev

In this paper we propose a new method for approximating the nonstationary moment dynamics of one dimensional Markovian birth-death processes. By expanding the transition probabilities of the Markov process in terms of Poisson-Charlier…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-09-23 Stefan Engblom , Jamol Pender

We consider the down/up crossing property of weighted Markov branching processes. The joint probability distribution of multi crossing numbers of such processes are obtained. In particular, for Markov branching processes, the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-20 Yanyun Li , Junping Li

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 R. W. R. Darling

Continuous value prediction plays a crucial role in industrial-scale recommendation systems, including tasks such as predicting users' watch-time and estimating the gross merchandise value (GMV) in e-commerce transactions. However, it…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Runpeng Cui , Zhipeng Sun , Chi Lu , Peng Jiang