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Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions. Although recent conformal scores…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Vagner S. Santos , Thiago R. Ramos , Rafael Izbicki

Recent research in explainability has given rise to numerous post-hoc attribution methods aimed at enhancing our comprehension of the outputs of black-box machine learning models. However, evaluating the quality of explanations lacks a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Samuel Sithakoul , Sara Meftah , Clément Feutry

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines

Motivated by the need to identify erroneous disparity assignments, various approaches for uncertainty and confidence estimation of dense stereo matching have been presented in recent years. As in many other fields, especially deep learning…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-11 Max Mehltretter

It is well believed that the higher uncertainty in a word of the caption, the more inter-correlated context information is required to determine it. However, current image captioning methods usually consider the generation of all words in a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Zhengcong Fei , Mingyuan Fan , Li Zhu , Junshi Huang , Xiaoming Wei , Xiaolin Wei

As AI models grow more complex, explainability is essential for building trust, yet concept-based counterfactual methods still face a trade-off between expressivity and efficiency. Representing underlying concepts as atomic sets is fast but…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Angeliki Dimitriou , Nikolaos Chaidos , Maria Lymperaiou , Giorgos Filandrianos , Giorgos Stamou

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Alex Kendall , Yarin Gal

In recent years, neural networks have demonstrated their remarkable ability to discern intricate patterns and relationships from raw data. However, understanding the inner workings of these black box models remains challenging, yet crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-18 Niklas Koenen , Marvin N. Wright

We develop a simple and unified framework for nonlinear variable selection that incorporates uncertainty in the prediction function and is compatible with a wide range of machine learning models (e.g., tree ensembles, kernel methods, neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-30 Wenying Deng , Beau Coker , Rajarshi Mukherjee , Jeremiah Zhe Liu , Brent A. Coull

The wide and rapid adoption of deep learning by practitioners brought unintended consequences in many situations such as in the infamous case of Google Photos' racist image recognition algorithm; thus, necessitated the utilization of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-24 Mehmet Yigit Yildirim , Mert Ozer , Hasan Davulcu

While the Graybox characterization method allows for implicit noise models and is platform-agnostic, the method lacks uncertainty quantification. Characterization of quantum devices is a crucial process that enables researchers to gain…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Poramet Pathumsoot , Michal Hajdušek , Rodney Van Meter

An interesting development in automatic visual recognition has been the emergence of tasks where it is not possible to assign objective labels to images, yet still feasible to collect annotations that reflect human judgements about them.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-23 Derek S. Prijatelj , Mel McCurrie , Walter J. Scheirer

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Hrushikesh Loya , Pranav Poduval , Deepak Anand , Neeraj Kumar , Amit Sethi

Causal approaches to post-hoc explainability for black-box prediction models (e.g., deep neural networks trained on image pixel data) have become increasingly popular. However, existing approaches have two important shortcomings: (i) the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Numair Sani , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

Albeit the tremendous performance improvements in designing complex artificial intelligence (AI) systems in data-intensive domains, the black-box nature of these systems leads to the lack of trustworthiness. Post-hoc interpretability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-25 Aditya Saini , Ranjitha Prasad

We introduce Matched Machine Learning, a framework that combines the flexibility of machine learning black boxes with the interpretability of matching, a longstanding tool in observational causal inference. Interpretability is paramount in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-05 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Machine learning classifiers are probabilistic in nature, and thus inevitably involve uncertainty. Predicting the probability of a specific input to be correct is called uncertainty (or confidence) estimation and is crucial for risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Gabriella Chouraqui , Liron Cohen , Gil Einziger , Liel Leman

In many high-risk machine learning applications it is essential for a model to indicate when it is uncertain about a prediction. While large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Evan Becker , Stefano Soatto

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly deployed in high-stakes decision-making domains such as loan approvals, hiring, and recidivism predictions. While existing fairness metrics (e.g., statistical parity, equal opportunity)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Gideon Popoola , John Sheppard

Understanding the generalization behavior of deep neural networks remains a fundamental challenge in modern statistical learning theory. Among existing approaches, PAC-Bayesian norm-based bounds have demonstrated particular promise due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-14 Xinping Yi , Gaojie Jin , Xiaowei Huang , Shi Jin
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