Related papers: Improving uplift model evaluation on RCT data

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) tailors treatments to a patient's specific characteristics. However, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often underpowered to detect the treatment effect heterogeneity needed for reliable ITR…

Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide strong internal validity compared with observational studies. However, selection bias threatens the external validity of randomized trials. Thus, RCT results may not apply to either broad public…

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a decision rule that aims to improve individual patients health outcomes by recommending optimal treatments according to patients specific information. In observational studies, collected data may…

Covariate adjustment is a general method for improving precision when estimating treatment effects in randomized trials and is recommended by the FDA in its 2023 guidance when baseline variables are prognostic for the primary outcome. We…

When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $\tau(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a…

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction of individualized treatment effects. While there is a rapidly growing literature on the development of such models, there is little literature on the evaluation of their…

Machine learning models trained on real-world data may inadvertently make biased predictions that negatively impact marginalized communities. Reweighting, which assigns a weight to each data point used during model training, can mitigate…

Starting from a linear fractional representation of a linear system affected by constant parametric uncertainties, we demonstrate how to enhance standard robust analysis tests by taking available (noisy) input-output data of the uncertain…

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various…

The success of deep learning depends heavily on the availability of large datasets, but in robotic manipulation there are many learning problems for which such datasets do not exist. Collecting these datasets is time-consuming and…

Existing statistical methods for the analysis of micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are designed to estimate causal excursion effects using data from a single MRT. In practice, however, researchers can often find previous MRTs that employ…

Data augmentation is known to contribute significantly to the robustness of machine learning models. In most instances, data augmentation is utilized during the training phase. Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) is a technique that instead…

Existing weighting methods for treatment effect estimation are often built upon the idea of propensity scores or covariate balance. They usually impose strong assumptions on treatment assignment or outcome model to obtain unbiased…

We examine four important considerations in the development of covariate adjustment methodologies for indirect treatment comparisons. Firstly, we consider potential advantages of weighting versus outcome modeling, placing focus on…

Paired cluster-randomized experiments (pCRTs) are common across many disciplines because there is often natural clustering of individuals, and paired randomization can help balance baseline covariates to improve experimental precision.…

There is growing interest in a hybrid control design in which a randomized controlled trial is augmented with an external control arm from a previous trial or real world data. Existing methods for analyzing hybrid control studies include…

In healthcare applications, predictive uncertainty has been used to assess predictive accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that predictive uncertainty estimated by the current methods does not highly correlate with prediction error by…

When developing risk prediction models, shrinkage methods are recommended, especially when the sample size is limited. Several earlier studies have shown that the shrinkage of model coefficients can reduce overfitting of the prediction…

Collaborative filtering based recommendation learns users' preferences from all users' historical behavior data, and has been popular to facilitate decision making. R Recently, the fairness issue of recommendation has become more and more…