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Related papers: The Calibration Generalization Gap

200 papers

Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-19 Matthew D. Cocci , Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Conformal Prediction (CP) algorithms estimate the uncertainty of a prediction model by calibrating its outputs on labeled data. The same calibration scheme usually applies to any model and data without modifications. The obtained prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Nicolo Colombo

Although overparameterized models have achieved remarkable practical success, their theoretical properties, particularly their generalization behavior, remain incompletely understood. The well known double descents phenomenon suggests that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-06 Haoran Zhan , Yingcun Xia

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

A significant advance in accelerating neural network training has been the development of normalization methods, permitting the training of deep models both faster and with better accuracy. These advances come with practical challenges: for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-05 Jasmine Collins , Johannes Balle , Jonathon Shlens

Calibration is an essential prerequisite for the accurate data fusion of LiDAR and camera sensors. Traditional calibration techniques often require specific targets or suitable scenes to obtain reliable 2D-3D correspondences. To tackle the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Shujuan Huang , Chunyu Lin , Yao Zhao

Optimizing proper loss functions is popularly believed to yield predictors with good calibration properties; the intuition being that for such losses, the global optimum is to predict the ground-truth probabilities, which is indeed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Jarosław Błasiok , Parikshit Gopalan , Lunjia Hu , Preetum Nakkiran

The vulnerability of models to data aberrations and adversarial attacks influences their ability to demarcate distinct class boundaries efficiently. The network's confidence and uncertainty play a pivotal role in weight adjustments and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Utkarsh Uppal , Bharat Giddwani

Generalization in generative modeling is defined as the ability to learn an underlying distribution from a finite dataset and produce novel samples, with evaluation largely driven by held-out performance and perceived sample quality. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Jerome Garnier-Brun , Luca Biggio , Davide Beltrame , Marc Mézard , Luca Saglietti

In typical machine learning systems, an estimate of the probability of the prediction is used to assess the system's confidence in the prediction. This confidence measure is usually uncalibrated; i.e.\ the system's confidence in the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Shehzaad Dhuliawala , Leonard Adolphs , Rajarshi Das , Mrinmaya Sachan

The robust generalization of models to rare, in-distribution (ID) samples drawn from the long tail of the training distribution and to out-of-training-distribution (OOD) samples is one of the major challenges of current deep learning…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Paul Gavrikov , Janis Keuper

Deep artificial neural networks have made remarkable progress in different tasks in the field of computer vision. However, the empirical analysis of these models and investigation of their failure cases has received attention recently. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-02-10 Babak Saleh , Ahmed Elgammal , Jacob Feldman

Deep learning models learn to fit training data while they are highly expected to generalize well to testing data. Most works aim at finding such models by creatively designing architectures and fine-tuning parameters. To adapt to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-09-10 Tianyang Wang , Jun Huan , Bo Li

Algorithm unfolding or unrolling is the technique of constructing a deep neural network (DNN) from an iterative algorithm. Unrolled DNNs often provide better interpretability and superior empirical performance over standard DNNs in signal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-21 Carter Lyons , Raghu G. Raj , Margaret Cheney

Mixup~\cite{zhang2017mixup} is a recently proposed method for training deep neural networks where additional samples are generated during training by convexly combining random pairs of images and their associated labels. While simple to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-08 Sunil Thulasidasan , Gopinath Chennupati , Jeff Bilmes , Tanmoy Bhattacharya , Sarah Michalak

In an increasing number of applications designers have access to multiple computer models which typically have different levels of fidelity and cost. Traditionally, designers calibrate these models one at a time against some high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Jonathan Tammer Eweis-Labolle , Tyler Johnson , Xiangyu Sun , Ramin Bostanabad

This paper studies how neural network architecture affects the speed of training. We introduce a simple concept called gradient confusion to help formally analyze this. When gradient confusion is high, stochastic gradients produced by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Karthik A. Sankararaman , Soham De , Zheng Xu , W. Ronny Huang , Tom Goldstein

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Deep neural networks are notoriously miscalibrated, i.e., their outputs do not reflect the true probability of the event we aim to predict. While networks for tabular or image data are usually overconfident, recent works have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Erik Nascimento , Diego Mesquita , Samuel Kaski , Amauri H Souza