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Related papers: The Calibration Generalization Gap

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We propose a new framework for reasoning about generalization in deep learning. The core idea is to couple the Real World, where optimizers take stochastic gradient steps on the empirical loss, to an Ideal World, where optimizers take steps…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-22 Preetum Nakkiran , Behnam Neyshabur , Hanie Sedghi

As deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve tremendous success across many application domains, researchers tried to explore in many aspects on why they generalize well. In this paper, we provide a novel perspective on these issues using the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Jinlong Liu , Guoqing Jiang , Yunzhi Bai , Ting Chen , Huayan Wang

Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

Neural Collapse (NC) is a well-known phenomenon of deep neural networks in the terminal phase of training (TPT). It is characterized by the collapse of features and classifier into a symmetrical structure, known as simplex equiangular tight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Peifeng Gao , Qianqian Xu , Yibo Yang , Peisong Wen , Huiyang Shao , Zhiyong Yang , Bernard Ghanem , Qingming Huang

Despite their massive size, successful deep artificial neural networks can exhibit a remarkably small difference between training and test performance. Conventional wisdom attributes small generalization error either to properties of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-28 Chiyuan Zhang , Samy Bengio , Moritz Hardt , Benjamin Recht , Oriol Vinyals

Despite the general consensus in transport research community that model calibration and validation are necessary to enhance model predictive performance, there exist significant inconsistencies in the literature. This is primarily due to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Samson Ting , Thomas Lymburn , Thomas Stemler , Yuchao Sun , Michael Small

Although deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve high predictive accuracy, their confidence estimates are often unreliable, potentially compromising user trust in their decisions. This has motivated research on calibrated models, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Ajay Shastry , Soumya Suvra Ghosal , Chetan Arora

Compositional generalization is a crucial property in artificial intelligence, enabling models to handle novel combinations of known components. While most deep learning models lack this capability, certain models succeed in specific tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Yuanpeng Li

A widely believed explanation for the remarkable generalization capacities of overparameterized neural networks is that the optimization algorithms used for training induce an implicit bias towards benign solutions. To grasp this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Maria Matveev , Vit Fojtik , Hung-Hsu Chou , Gitta Kutyniok , Johannes Maly

Accurate quantification of uncertainty is crucial for real-world applications of machine learning. However, modern deep neural networks still produce unreliable predictive uncertainty, often yielding over-confident predictions. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Peng Cui , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

Modern neural networks can achieve high accuracy while remaining poorly calibrated, producing confidence estimates that do not match empirical correctness. Yet calibration is often treated as a post-hoc attribute. We take a different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Alessandro Morosini , Matea Gjika , Tomaso Poggio , Pierfrancesco Beneventano

In this work, we propose a notion of practical learnability grounded in finite sample settings, and develop a conjugate learning theoretical framework based on convex conjugate duality to characterize this learnability property. Building on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Binchuan Qi

The problem of matching two sets of multiple elements, namely set-to-set matching, has received a great deal of attention in recent years. In particular, it has been reported that good experimental results can be obtained by preparing a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-28 Masanari Kimura

One of the major open problems in machine learning is to characterize generalization in the overparameterized regime, where most traditional generalization bounds become inconsistent even for overparameterized linear regression. In many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Jing Xu , Jiaye Teng , Yang Yuan , Andrew Chi-Chih Yao

We study the generation of prediction intervals in regression for uncertainty quantification. This task can be formalized as an empirical constrained optimization problem that minimizes the average interval width while maintaining the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Haoxian Chen , Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Huajie Qian , Haofeng Zhang

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Jia-Qi Yang , De-Chuan Zhan , Le Gan

We investigate random feature models in which neural networks sampled from a prescribed initialization ensemble are frozen and used as random features, with only the readout weights optimized. Adopting a statistical-physics viewpoint, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Taeyoung Kim

Modern deep neural networks (DNNs) represent a formidable challenge for theorists: according to the commonly accepted probabilistic framework that describes their performance, these architectures should overfit due to the huge number of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2022-03-03 S. Ariosto , R. Pacelli , F. Ginelli , M. Gherardi , P. Rotondo

Despite achieving enormous success in predictive accuracy for visual classification problems, deep neural networks (DNNs) suffer from providing overconfident probabilities on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Yet, accurate uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Zongyao Lyu , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei
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