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There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use external trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods facilitate borrowing which is "dynamic" in the sense that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-09 Sophia Axillus , Alex Lewin , Darren Scott

The elicitation of power priors, based on the availability of historical data, is realized by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to a fractional power {\delta}, which quantifies the degree of discounting of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-13 Keying Ye , Zifei Han , Yuyan Duan , Tianyu Bai

In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 James Willard , Shirin Golchi , Erica EM Moodie

We propose a score-based generative algorithm for sampling from power-scaled priors and likelihoods within the Bayesian inference framework. Our algorithm enables flexible control over prior-likelihood influence without requiring retraining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Huseyin Tuna Erdinc , Yunlin Zeng , Abhinav Prakash Gahlot , Felix J. Herrmann

Motivated by a rheumatoid arthritis clinical trial, we propose a new Bayesian method called SPx, standing for synthetic prior with covariates, to borrow information from historical trials to reduce the control group size in a new trial. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-01 Daniel E. Schwartz , Yuan Ji , Li Wang

External data borrowing in clinical trial designs has increased in recent years. This is accomplished in the Bayesian framework by specifying informative prior distributions. To mitigate the impact of potential inconsistency (bias) between…

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often exhibit limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to small sample sizes. In recent years, the combination of external controls has gained increasing attention as a means of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu

In early phase drug development of combination therapy, the primary objective is to preliminarily assess whether there is additive activity from a novel agent when combined with an established monotherapy. Due to potential feasibility…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Zhaohua Lu , John Toso , Girma Ayele , Philip He

The power prior and its variations have been proven to be a useful class of informative priors in Bayesian inference due to their flexibility in incorporating the historical information by raising the likelihood of the historical data to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-14 Zifei Han , Keying Ye , Min Wang

Robust Mixture Prior (RMP) is a popular Bayesian dynamic borrowing method, which combines an informative historical distribution with a less informative component (referred as robustification component) in a mixture prior to enhance the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Marco Ratta , Gaelle Saint-Hilary , Mauro Gasparini , Pavel Mozgunov

Estimating causal effects from randomized experiments is central to clinical research. Reducing the statistical uncertainty in these analyses is an important objective for statisticians. Registries, prior trials, and health records…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-06 Alejandro Schuler , David Walsh , Diana Hall , Jon Walsh , Charles Fisher

Use of historical data and real-world evidence holds great potential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. One major challenge is how to effectively borrow information from historical data while maintaining a reasonable type I…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Liyun Jiang , Lei Nie , Ying Yuan

Extrapolating treatment effects from related studies is a promising strategy for designing and analyzing clinical trials in situations where achieving an adequate sample size is challenging. Bayesian methods are well-suited for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Tristan Fauvel , Julien Tanniou , Pascal Godbillot , Marie Génin , Billy Amzal

Identifying variables associated with clinical endpoints is of much interest in clinical trials. With the rapid growth of cell and gene therapy (CGT) and therapeutics for ultra-rare diseases, there is an urgent need for statistical methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Lingxuan Kong , Yumin Zhang , Chenkun Wang , Yaoyuan Vincent Tan

The statistical evidence (or marginal likelihood) is a key quantity in Bayesian statistics, allowing one to assess the probability of the data given the model under investigation. This paper focuses on refining the power posterior approach…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-14 Nial Friel , Merrilee Hurn , Jason Wyse

In randomized clinical trials (RCTs), the accurate estimation of marginal treatment effects is crucial for determining the efficacy of interventions. Enhancing the statistical power of these analyses is a key objective for statisticians.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-30 Emilie Højbjerre-Frandsen , Mark J. van der Laan , Alejandro Schuler

We introduce a sparse high-dimensional regression approach that can incorporate prior information on the regression parameters and can borrow information across a set of similar datasets. Prior information may for instance come from…

We propose a Bayesian propensity score-augmented latent factor model for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. The framework explicitly models the treatment assignment mechanism by incorporating latent factor loadings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Licheng Liu

The reproducibility crisis has led to an increasing number of replication studies being conducted. Sample sizes for replication studies are often calculated using conditional power based on the effect estimate from the original study.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-19 Charlotte Micheloud , Leonhard Held