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We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response $Y$ and a predictor $X$ given a random vector $Z$. The proposed test is based on e-statistics and test martingales, which generalize likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Peter Grünwald , Alexander Henzi , Tyron Lardy

Conditional independence (CI) tests are widely used in statistical data analysis, e.g., they are the building block of many algorithms for causal graph discovery. The goal of a CI test is to accept or reject the null hypothesis that $X…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Iden Kalemaj , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan , Aaditya Ramdas

This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Igor Kheifets , Carlos Velasco

Permutation tests date back nearly a century to Fisher's randomized experiments, and remain an immensely popular statistical tool, used for testing hypotheses of independence between variables and other common inferential questions. Much of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-05 Aaditya Ramdas , Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Ryan J. Tibshirani

We prove some general results about the asymptotics of the distribution of the number of cycles of given length of a random permutation whose distribution is invariant under conjugation. These results were first established to be applied in…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-16 Florent Benaych-Georges

Assuming that data are collected sequentially from independent streams, we consider the simultaneous testing of multiple binary hypotheses under two general setups; when the number of signals (correct alternatives) is known in advance, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Yanglei Song , Georgios Fellouris

We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time-series data.…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-12 Federico A. Bugni , Jia Li , Qiyuan Li

In the classical occupancy scheme, one considers a fixed discrete probability measure ${\bf p}=(p_i: {i\in{\cal I}})$ and throws balls independently at random in boxes labeled by ${\cal I}$, such that $p_i$ is the probability that a given…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-10-09 Jean Bertoin

In randomized experiments with noncompliance, tests may focus on compliers rather than on the overall sample. Rubin (1998) put forth such a method, and argued that testing for the complier average causal effect and averaging permutation…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-23 Laura Forastiere , Fabrizia Mealli , Luke Miratrix

We propose two model-free, permutation-based tests of independence between a pair of random variables. The tests can be applied to samples from any bivariate distribution: continuous, discrete or mixture of those, with light tails or heavy…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-16 Jiří Dvořák , Tomáš Mrkvička

Independence testing is a fundamental problem in statistical inference: given samples from a joint distribution $p$ over multiple random variables, the goal is to determine whether $p$ is a product distribution or is $\epsilon$-far from all…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-06 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Alireza Azizi , Ria Stevens

We consider the problem of two-sample testing under a local differential privacy constraint where a permutation procedure is used to calibrate the tests. We develop testing procedures which are optimal up to logarithmic factors, for general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Alexander Kent , Thomas B. Berrett , Yi Yu

We propose a new method named the Conditional Randomization Rank Test (CRRT) for testing conditional independence of a response variable Y and a covariate variable X, conditional on the rest of the covariates Z. The new method generalizes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-02 Yanjie Zhong , Todd Kuffner , Soumendra Lahiri

We derive the exact asymptotic distribution of the conditional likelihood-ratio test in instrumental variables regression under weak instrument asymptotics and for multiple endogenous variables. The distribution is conditional on all…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-09 Malte Londschien

This paper studies one-sided hypothesis testing under random sampling without replacement. That is, when $n+1$ binary random variables $X_1,\ldots, X_{n+1}$ are subject to a permutation invariant distribution and $n$ binary random variables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-07 Zihao Li , Huangjun Zhu , Masahito Hayashi

Conditional-independence-based discovery uses statistical tests to identify a graphical model that represents the independence structure of variables in a dataset. These tests, however, can be unreliable, and algorithms are sensitive to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Philipp M. Faller , Dominik Janzing

Following our previous work on copula-based nonsymmetric dependence measures, we introduce similar measures for discrete random variables. The measures cover the range between two extremes: independence and complete dependence, which take…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-29 Hui Li

This paper presents a procedure for testing the hypothesis that the underlying distribution of the data is elliptical when using robust location and scatter estimators instead of the sample mean and covariance matrix. Under mild assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-20 Ana M. Bianco , Graciela Boente , Isabel M. Rodrigues

In the classical two-sample problem, the conventional approach for testing distributions equality is based on the difference between the two marginal empirical distribution functions, whereas a test for independence is based on the contrast…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-14 Laura Dumitrescu , Estate V. Khmaladze

In broad applications, it is routinely of interest to assess whether there is evidence in the data to refute the assumption of conditional independence of $Y$ and $X$ conditionally on $Z$. Such tests are well developed in parametric models…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-25 Tsuyoshi Kunihama , David B. Dunson
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