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Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-17 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

We extend the results of Arguin et al and A\"\i{}d\'ekon et al on the convergence of the extremal process of branching Brownian motion by adding an extra dimension that encodes the "location" of the particle in the underlying Galton-Watson…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-22 Anton Bovier , Lisa Hartung

In the series of models with interacting particles in stochastic geometry, a new contribution presents the facet process which is defined in arbitrary Euclidean dimension. In 2D, 3D specially it is a process of interacting segments, flat…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-02 Jakub Vecera , Viktor Benes

To address the need for efficient inference for a range of hydrological extreme value problems, spatial pooling of information is the standard approach for marginal tail estimation. We propose the first extreme value spatial clustering…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Christian Rohrbeck , Jonathan A Tawn

In this chapter we review some examples, methods, and recent results involving comparison of clustering properties of point processes. Our approach is founded on some basic observations allowing us to consider void probabilities and moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-23 Bartłomiej Błaszczyszyn , D. Yogeshwaran

To accurately quantify landslide hazard in a region of Turkey, we develop new marked point process models within a Bayesian hierarchical framework for the joint prediction of landslide counts and sizes. To accommodate for the dominant role…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Rishikesh Yadav , Raphaël Huser , Thomas Opitz , Luigi Lombardo

The allocation problem for a $d$-dimensional Poisson point process is to find a way to partition the space to parts of equal size, and to assign the parts to the configuration points in a measurable, "deterministic" (equivariant) way. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-31 Roland Markó , Ádám Timár

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Anru R. Zhang , Yuchen Zhou

A family of self-similar and translation-invariant random sup-measures with long-range dependence are investigated. They are shown to arise as the limit of the empirical random sup-measure of a stationary heavy-tailed process, inspired by…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Olivier Durieu , Yizao Wang

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-06 Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Benjamin A. Shaby

Sticks at one of different orientation are placed in an i.i.d. fashion at points of a Poisson point process of intensity $\lambda$. Sticks of the same direction have the same length, while sticks in different directions may have different…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Rahul Roy , Hideki Tanemura

Let $\{Z(\tau,s), (\tau,s)\in [a,b]\times[0,T]\}$ with some positive constants $a,b,T$ be a centered Gaussian random field with variance function $\sigma^{2}(\tau,s)$ satisfying $\sigma^{2}(\tau,s)=\sigma^{2}(\tau)$. We firstly derive the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-10 Zhongquan Tan , Shengchao Zheng

The Extremal Index is a parameter that measures the intensity of clustering of rare events and is usually equal to the reciprocal of the mean of the limiting cluster size distribution. We show how to build dynamically generated stochastic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-05-20 Miguel Abadi , Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

We derive normal approximation results for a class of stabilizing functionals of binomial or Poisson point process, that are not necessarily expressible as sums of certain score functions. Our approach is based on a flexible notion of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-20 Zhaoyang Shi , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Wolfgang Polonik

In this paper, we consider a stochastic system described by a differential equation admitting a spatially varying random coefficient. The differential equation has been employed to model various static physics systems such as elastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-18 Jingchen Liu , Xiang Zhou

Random events in space and time often exhibit a locally dependent structure. When the events are very rare and dependent structure is not too complicated, various studies in the literature have shown that Poisson and compound Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-22 Aihua Xia , Fuxi Zhang