English
Related papers

Related papers: Statistical inference for rough volatility: Minima…

200 papers

We analyze the effect of additive fractional noise with Hurst parameter $H > \frac{1}{2}$ on fast-slow systems. Our strategy is based on sample paths estimates, similar to the approach by Berglund and Gentz in the Brownian motion case. Yet,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Katharina Eichinger , Christian Kuehn , Alexandra Neamtu

We present an innovating sensitivity analysis for stochastic differential equations: We study the sensitivity, when the Hurst parameter~$H$ of the driving fractional Brownian motion tends to the pure Brownian value, of probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Alexandre Richard , Denis Talay

In this short note, we show how to use concentration inequalities in order to build exact confidence intervals for the Hurst parameter associated with a one-dimensional fractional Brownian motion

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-29 Jean-Christophe Breton , Ivan Nourdin , Giovanni Peccati

In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of continuous stochastic volatility models, discussing their historical development and the key stylized facts that have driven the field. Special attention is dedicated to fractional and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-22 Giulia Di Nunno , Kęstutis Kubilius , Yuliya Mishura , Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko

We examine the issue of sensitivity with respect to model parameters for the problem of utility maximization from final wealth in an incomplete Samuelson model and mainly, but not exclusively, for utility functions of positive power-type.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-20 Julio Backhoff Veraguas , Francisco Silva

We investigated the quality of forecasting of fractional Brownian motion, and new method for estimating of Hurst exponent is validated. Stochastic model of the time series in the form of converted fractional Brownian motion is proposed. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-05 Valeria Bondarenko , Victor Bondarenko , Kiryl Truskovsky , Ina Taralova

Selecting the best regularization parameter in inverse problems is a classical and yet challenging problem. Recently, data-driven approaches have become popular to tackle this challenge. These approaches are appealing since they do require…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Jonathan Chirinos Rodriguez , Ernesto De Vito , Cesare Molinari , Lorenzo Rosasco , Silvia Villa

Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-19 Sergio Bianchi , Daniele Angelini , Massimiliano Frezza , Augusto Pianese

Sensitivity analysis w.r.t. the long-range/memory noise parameter for probability distributions of functionals of solutions to stochastic differential equations is an important stochastic modeling issue in many applications. In this paper…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-30 Alexandre Richard , Denis Talay

In this paper, we show how concentration inequalities for Gaussian quadratic form can be used to propose exact confidence intervals of the Hurst index parametrizing a fractional Brownian motion. Both cases where the scaling parameter of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-16 Jean-Christophe Breton , Jean-François Coeurjolly

A wide array of machine learning problems are formulated as the minimization of the expectation of a convex loss function on some parameter space. Since the probability distribution of the data of interest is usually unknown, it is is often…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-27 Emilie Chouzenoux , Henri Gérard , Jean-Christophe Pesquet

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-12 Abel Rodriguez , Henryk Gzyl , German Molina , Enrique ter Horst

Stochastic processes are often used to model complex scientific problems in fields ranging from biology and finance to engineering and physical science. This paper investigates rate-optimal estimation of the volatility matrix of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-30 Minjing Tao , Yazhen Wang , Harrison H. Zhou

Based on Malliavin calculus tools and approximation results, we show how to compute a maximum likelihood type estimator for a rather general differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/2. Rates of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-05 Alexandra Chronopoulou , Samy Tindel

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone

Even though the statistical theory of linear inverse problems is a well-studied topic, certain relevant cases remain open. Among these is the estimation of functions of bounded variation ($BV$), meaning $L^1$ functions on a $d$-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Miguel del Álamo , Axel Munk

We investigate the limiting distribution of geometric Brownian motion conditional on its running maximum taking large values. We show that the conditional distribution of the geometric Brownian motion converges after a suitable…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Ze-An Ng

Several asymptotic results for the implied volatility generated by a rough volatility model have been obtained in recent years (notably in the small-maturity regime), providing a better understanding of the shapes of the volatility surface…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-16 Florian Bourgey , Stefano De Marco , Peter K. Friz , Paolo Pigato

In this study, we develop a new theory of estimating Hurst parame- ter using conic multivariate adaptive regression splines (CMARS) method. We concentrate on the strong solution of stochastic differentional equations (SDEs) driven by…

High-frequency data observed on the prices of financial assets are commonly modeled by diffusion processes with micro-structure noise, and realized volatility-based methods are often used to estimate integrated volatility. For problems…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-26 Yazhen Wang , Jian Zou