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Artificial intelligence models trained from data can only be as good as the underlying data is. Biases in training data propagating through to the output of a machine learning model are a well-documented and well-understood phenomenon, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Stefan Rass , Martin Dallinger

Randomized Controlled Trials are one of the pillars of science; nevertheless, they rely on hand-crafted hypotheses and expensive analysis. Such constraints prevent causal effect estimation at scale, potentially anchoring on popular yet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Tommaso Mencattini , Riccardo Cadei , Francesco Locatello

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Ziqi Xu , Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Jixue Liu , Lin Liu , Kui Yu

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

Dance and music are closely related forms of expression, with mutual retrieval between dance videos and music being a fundamental task in various fields like education, art, and sports. However, existing methods often suffer from unnatural…

Sound · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Kaixing Yang , Xukun Zhou , Xulong Tang , Ran Diao , Hongyan Liu , Jun He , Zhaoxin Fan

Conformal prediction, which makes no distributional assumptions about the data, has emerged as a powerful and reliable approach to uncertainty quantification in practical applications. The nonconformity measure used in conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Yuko Kato , David M. J. Tax , Marco Loog

We consider missingness in the context of causal inference when the outcome of interest may be missing. If the outcome directly affects its own missingness status, i.e., it is "self-censoring", this may lead to severely biased causal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-12 Jacob M Chen , Daniel Malinsky , Rohit Bhattacharya

Given only data generated by a standard confounding graph with unobserved confounder, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is not identifiable. To estimate the ATE, a practitioner must then either (a) collect deconfounded data;(b) run a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-09 Kyra Gan , Andrew A. Li , Zachary C. Lipton , Sridhar Tayur

We focus on the problem estimating a monotone trend function under additive and dependent noise. New point-wise confidence interval estimators under both short- and long-range dependent errors are introduced and studied. These intervals are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-23 Pramita Bagchi , Moulinath Banerjee , Stilian Stoev

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

The business processes of organizations may deviate from normal control flow due to disruptive anomalies, including unknown, skipped, and wrongly-ordered activities. To identify these control-flow anomalies, process mining can check…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Francesco Vitale , Marco Pegoraro , Wil M. P. van der Aalst , Nicola Mazzocca

Data-driven methods for personalizing treatment assignment have garnered much attention from clinicians and researchers. Dynamic treatment regimes formalize this through a sequence of decision rules that map individual patient…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Eric J. Rose , Erica E. M. Moodie , Susan Shortreed

Causal effect estimation has been studied by many researchers when only observational data is available. Sound and complete algorithms have been developed for pointwise estimation of identifiable causal queries. For non-identifiable causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-26 Ziwei Jiang , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu

Input-affine dynamical systems often arise in control and modeling scenarios, such as the data-driven case when state-derivative observations are recorded under bounded noise. Common tasks in system analysis and control include optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-21 Jared Miller , Mario Sznaier

Data-driven model identification strategies can be used to obtain phenomenological models that capture the temporal evolution of observable data. While it is usually straightforward to obtain such a model from time series data, for instance…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Mohamed Akrout , Dan Wilson

For covariance test in functional data analysis, existing methods are developed only for fully observed curves, whereas in practice, trajectories are typically observed discretely and with noise. To bridge this gap, we employ a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-20 Yang Zhou , Jin Yang , Fang Yao

Many real-world decision-making tasks require learning causal relationships between a set of variables. Traditional causal discovery methods, however, require that all variables are observed, which is often not feasible in practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Neha Prasad , Caroline Uhler

We propose and study a general method for construction of consistent statistical tests on the basis of possibly indirect, corrupted, or partially available observations. The class of tests devised in the paper contains Neyman's smooth…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-22 Mikhail Langovoy

This work introduces a data-driven control approach for stabilizing high-dimensional dynamical systems from scarce data. The proposed context-aware controller inference approach is based on the observation that controllers need to act…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-23 Steffen W. R. Werner , Benjamin Peherstorfer

Thanks to technological advances leading to near-continuous time observations, emerging multivariate point process data offer new opportunities for causal discovery. However, a key obstacle in achieving this goal is that many relevant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-15 Xu Wang , Ali Shojaie