Related papers: A Time-Efficient, Data Driven Modelling Approach F…
The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast…
Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of…
The geo-effectiveness of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a critical area of study in space weather, particularly in the lesser-explored domain of CME-CME interactions and their geomagnetic consequences. This study leverages the SWASTi…
We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME…
The magnetic fields of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which originate close to the Sun in the form of a flux rope, determine their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, robust flux rope-based models of CMEs are required to perform…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are energetic storms in the Sun that result in the ejection of large-scale magnetic clouds (MCs) in interplanetary space that contain enhanced magnetic fields with coherently changing field direction. The…
Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, Bz. Predicting the strength and duration of Bz inside a CME with sufficient accuracy…
We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach…
Understanding and forecasting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is crucial for protecting infrastructure in the near-Earth space environment and on Earth. In this study, we present a novel fusion model to forecast the…
Improving predictions of the geomagnetic impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires understanding how solar source properties relate to in-situ measurements at Earth. However, major geomagnetic storms frequently arise from interacting…
With the global view and high-cadence observations from SDO/AIA and STEREO, many spatially separated solar eruptive events appear to be coupled. However, the mechanisms for "sympathetic" events are still largely unknown. In this study, we…
The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their driven shocks are a major source of large geomagnetic storms due to their large and long-lasting, southward component of magnetic field in the sheath and the flux rope (e.g., magnetic cloud).…
Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for the prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it…
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) are the primary sources of geomagnetic storms at Earth. Negative out-of-ecliptic component (Bz) of magnetic field in the ICME or its associated sheath region is necessary for it to be…
High-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) interact with the preceding ambient solar wind to form Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs), which are a primary source of recurrent geomagnetic storms. However, HSSs may also encounter and subsequently…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most geoeffective space weather phenomena, being associated with large geomagnetic storms, having the potential to cause disturbances to telecommunication, satellite network disruptions, power grid…
We report on an observationally constrained analytical model, the INterplanetary Flux ROpe Simulator (INFROS), for predicting the magnetic-field vectors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary medium. The main architecture of…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary drivers of adverse space-weather events, yet their initiation and onset prediction remain insufficiently understood due to the complexity of the magnetic topology and physical processes in real…
Currently, achieving a balance between computational efficiency, accuracy, and numerical stability in CME simulations, particularly in the sub-Alfv{'e}nic coronal region, remains a significant challenge. This paper aims to address the…