Related papers: Volatility density estimation by multiplicative de…

We introduce the notion of relative volatility/intermittency and demonstrate how relative volatility statistics can be used to estimate consistently the temporal variation of volatility/intermittency when the data of interest are generated…

We consider here estimation of an unknown probability density s belonging to L2(mu) where mu is a probability measure. We have at hand n i.i.d. observations with density s and use the squared L2-norm as our loss function. The purpose of…

In this paper, we establish a probabilistic representation as well as some integration by parts formulae for the marginal law at a given time maturity of some stochastic volatility model with unbounded drift. Relying on a perturbation…

This paper presents a robust version of the stratified sampling method when multiple uncertain input models are considered for stochastic simulation. Various variance reduction techniques have demonstrated their superior performance in…

In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…

This paper presents a new method to assess default risk based on applying the CEV process to the KMV model. We find that the volatility of the firm asset value may not be a constant, so we assume the firm's asset value dynamics are given by…

We construct a density estimator in the bivariate uniform deconvolution model. For this model we derive four inversion formulas to express the bivariate density that we want to estimate in terms of the bivariate density of the observations.…

Given a low frequency sample of an infinitely divisible moving average random field $\{\int_{\mathbb{R}^d} f(x-t)\Lambda(dx); \ t \in \mathbb{R}^d \}$ with a known simple function $f$, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of the…

In this work we consider the unbiased estimation of expectations w.r.t.~probability measures that have non-negative Lebesgue density, and which are known point-wise up-to a normalizing constant. We focus upon developing an unbiased method…

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Stochastic processes are often used to model complex scientific problems in fields ranging from biology and finance to engineering and physical science. This paper investigates rate-optimal estimation of the volatility matrix of a…

We derive multiscale statistics for deconvolution in order to detect qualitative features of the unknown density. An important example covered within this framework is to test for local monotonicity on all scales simultaneously. We…

We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…

In the present paper we consider the varying coefficient model which represents a useful tool for exploring dynamic patterns in many applications. Existing methods typically provide asymptotic evaluation of precision of estimation…

Non-linear latent variable models have become increasingly popular in a variety of applications. However, there has been little study on theoretical properties of these models. In this article, we study rates of posterior contraction in…

In this paper, we study first the problem of nonparametric estimation of the stationary density $f$ of a discrete-time Markov chain $(X_i)$. We consider a collection of projection estimators on finite dimensional linear spaces. We select an…

The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state…

Local volatility is an important quantity in option pricing, portfolio hedging, and risk management. It is not directly observable from the market; hence calibrations of local volatility models are necessary using observable market data.…

Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) for generating one-day-ahead arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces. To capture the path-dependent nature of volatility dynamics, we condition our model on a set of market variables, including…

The random coefficients model $Y_i={\beta_0}_i+{\beta_1}_i {X_1}_i+{\beta_2}_i {X_2}_i+\ldots+{\beta_d}_i {X_d}_i$, with $\mathbf{X}_i$, $Y_i$, $\mathbf{\beta}_i$ i.i.d, and $\mathbf{\beta}_i$ independent of $X_i$ is often used to capture…