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The notion of causality assumes a paramount position within the realm of human cognition. Over the past few decades, there has been significant advancement in the domain of causal effect estimation across various disciplines, including but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Zongyu Li , Xiaobo Guo , Siwei Qiang

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Yuefei Chen , Vivek K. Singh , Jing Ma , Ruixiang Tang

Counterfactual reasoning has emerged as a crucial technique for generalizing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). By generating and analyzing counterfactual scenarios, researchers can assess the adaptability and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Shuai Yang , Qi Yang , Luoxi Tang , Yuqiao Meng , Nancy Guo , Jeremy Blackburn , Zhaohan Xi

We assume to be given structural equations over discrete variables inducing a directed acyclic graph, namely, a structural causal model, together with data about its internal nodes. The question we want to answer is how we can compute…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber , Dario Azzimonti

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Borja Balle , Isabel Valera

Despite the increasing effectiveness of language models, their reasoning capabilities remain underdeveloped. In particular, causal reasoning through counterfactual question answering is lacking. This work aims to bridge this gap. We first…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Alihan Hüyük , Xinnuo Xu , Jacqueline Maasch , Aditya V. Nori , Javier González

Counterfactual explanation methods have recently received significant attention for explaining CNN-based image classifiers due to their ability to provide easily understandable explanations that align more closely with human reasoning.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Syed Ali Tariq , Tehseen Zia

Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Ana Lucic , Harrie Oosterhuis , Hinda Haned , Maarten de Rijke

There are now many explainable AI methods for understanding the decisions of a machine learning model. Among these are those based on counterfactual reasoning, which involve simulating features changes and observing the impact on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Vincent Lemaire , Nathan Le Boudec , Victor Guyomard , Françoise Fessant

The increasing application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning models poses potential risks of unfair behavior and, in light of recent regulations, has attracted the attention of the research community. Several researchers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Giandomenico Cornacchia , Vito Walter Anelli , Fedelucio Narducci , Azzurra Ragone , Eugenio Di Sciascio

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Matt J. Kusner , Joshua R. Loftus , Chris Russell , Ricardo Silva

Causality is vital for understanding true cause-and-effect relationships between variables within predictive models, rather than relying on mere correlations, making it highly relevant in the field of Explainable AI. In an automated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Arturo Fredes , Jordi Vitria

This paper investigates the problem of bounding counterfactual queries from an arbitrary collection of observational and experimental distributions and qualitative knowledge about the underlying data-generating model represented in the form…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Junzhe Zhang , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Ramaravind Kommiya Mothilal , Amit Sharma , Chenhao Tan

Counterfactual reasoning -- the practice of asking ``what if'' by varying inputs and observing changes in model behavior -- has become central to interpretable and fair AI. This thesis develops frameworks that use counterfactuals to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Pushkar Shukla

Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

In this paper, we show that counterfactual explanations of confidence scores help users better understand and better trust an AI model's prediction in human-subject studies. Showing confidence scores in human-agent interaction systems can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Thao Le , Tim Miller , Ronal Singh , Liz Sonenberg

There has been considerable recent interest in explainability in AI, especially with black-box machine learning models. As correctly observed by the planning community, when the application at hand is not a single-shot decision or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Vaishak Belle

To construct interpretable explanations that are consistent with the original ML model, counterfactual examples---showing how the model's output changes with small perturbations to the input---have been proposed. This paper extends the work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Divyat Mahajan , Chenhao Tan , Amit Sharma

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo