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We consider the problem of time series forecasting in an adaptive setting. We focus on the inference of state-space models under unknown and potentially time-varying noise variances. We introduce an augmented model in which the variances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Joseph de Vilmarest , Olivier Wintenberger

The Kalman filter is ubiquitous for state space models because of its desirable statistical properties, ease of implementation, and generally good performance. However, it can perform poorly in the presence of outliers, or measurements with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-26 Michael J. Walsh

We propose a general solution to the problem of robust Bayesian inference in complex settings where outliers may be present. In practice, the automation of robust Bayesian analyses is important in the many applications involving large and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Jeremie Houssineau , David J. Nott

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has shown promising results for 3D scene modeling using mixtures of Gaussians, yet its existing simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) variants typically rely on direct, deterministic pose optimization…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Yuhan Zhu , Yanyu Zhang , Jie Xu , Wei Ren

In this paper, state and noise covariance estimation problems for linear system with unknown multiplicative noise are considered. The measurement likelihood is modelled as a mixture of two Gaussian distributions and a Student's t…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-29 Xingkai Yu , Ziyang Meng

This paper addresses state estimation of linear systems with special attention on unknown process and measurement noise covariances, aiming to enhance estimation accuracy while preserving the stability guarantee of the Kalman filter. To…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-12 Xiangxiang Dong , Giorgio Battistelli , Luigi Chisci , Yunze Cai

Robustness and adaptivity are two competing objectives in Kalman filters (KF). Robustness involves temporarily inflating prior estimates of noise covariances, while adaptivity updates prior beliefs by exploiting measurements. In practical…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Shilei Li , Dawei Shi , Hao Yu , Ling Shi

Most Kalman filter extensions assume Gaussian noise and when the noise is non-Gaussian, usually other types of filters are used. These filters, such as particle filter variants, are computationally more demanding than Kalman type filters.…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-19 Matti Raitoharju , Henri Nurminen , Demet Cilden-Guler , Simo Särkkä

This paper proposes a novel particle filter for tracking time-varying states of multiple targets jointly from superpositional data, which depend on the sum of contributions of all targets. Many conventional tracking methods rely on…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-26 Nobutaka Ito , Simon Godsill

In the process of tracking multiple point targets in space using radar, since the targets are spatially well separated, the data between them will not be confused. Therefore, the multi-target tracking problem can be transformed into a…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-25 Mushen Lin , Fenggang Yan , Lingda Ren , Xiangtian Meng , Maria Greco , Fulvio Gini , Ming Jin

Developing a robust object tracker is a challenging task due to factors such as occlusion, motion blur, fast motion, illumination variations, rotation, background clutter, low resolution and deformation across the frames. In the literature,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-17 Sandeep Singh Sengar

This paper introduces a novel Kalman filter framework designed to achieve robust state estimation under both process and measurement noise. Inspired by the Weighted Observation Likelihood Filter (WoLF), which provides robustness against…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Weitao Liu

Recently, a number of mostly $\ell_1$-norm regularized least squares type deterministic algorithms have been proposed to address the problem of \emph{sparse} adaptive signal estimation and system identification. From a Bayesian perspective,…

Recent machine learning advances have proposed black-box estimation of unknown continuous-time system dynamics directly from data. However, earlier works are based on approximative ODE solutions or point estimates. We propose a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Pashupati Hegde , Çağatay Yıldız , Harri Lähdesmäki , Samuel Kaski , Markus Heinonen

Trajectory Reconstruction (TR) is vital for accurately mapping movement patterns and validating analyses, especially in fields like robotics, biomechanics, and environmental tracking, where data might be missing or affected by outliers.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-29 Arslan Majal , Aamir Hussain Chughtai

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-24 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

Ising models originated in statistical physics and are widely used in modeling spatial data and computer vision problems. However, statistical inference of this model remains challenging due to intractable nature of the normalizing constant…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Minwoo Kim , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

Future radar systems are expected to use waveforms of a high bandwidth, where the main advantage is an improved range resolution. In this paper, a technique to design robust wideband waveforms for a Multiple-Input-Single-Output system is…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-17 Ashkan Panahi , Marie Ström , Mats Viberg

The presence of outliers (anomalous values) in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and the misspecification in statistical image models may result in inaccurate inferences. To avoid such issues, the Rayleigh regression model based on a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-02 B. G. Palm , F. M. Bayer , R. Machado , M. I. Pettersson , V. T. Vu , R. J. Cintra

Tracking underwater autonomous platforms is often difficult because of noisy, biased, and discretized input data. Classic filters and smoothers based on standard assumptions of Gaussian white noise break down when presented with any of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-24 Jonathan Jonker , Aleksandr Aravkin , James V. Burke , Gianluigi Pillonetto , Sarah Webster