Related papers: Solar Flare Index Prediction Using SDO/HMI Vector …
Magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) are thought to be the central structure of solar eruptions, and their ideal MHD instabilities can trigger the eruption. Here we performed a study of all the MFR configurations that lead to major solar flares,…
Recent studies indicate that a small number of rogue solar active regions (ARs) may have a significant impact on the end-of-cycle polar field and the long-term behavior of solar activity. The impact of individual ARs can be qualified based…
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…
Solar flares, the most powerful explosive phenomena in the solar system, may pose significant hazards to spaceborne satellites and ground-based infrastructure. Despite decades of intensive research, reliable flare prediction remains a…
The current fleet of space-based solar observatories offers us a wealth of opportunities to study solar flares over a range of wavelengths. Significant advances in our understanding of flare physics often come from coordinated observations…
We present the discovery of a relationship between the maximum ratio of the flare flux (namely, 0.5-4 Ang to the 1-8 Ang flux) and non-flare background (namely, the 1-8 Ang background flux), which clearly separates flares into classes by…
Solar flares commonly have a hot onset precursor event" (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. Detecting this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission…
We analyze the relationship between the flare X-ray peak flux, and characteristics of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Active Regions (AR), derived from line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. The PIL detection algorithm based on a…
The Space-Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) is a multivariate time series benchmark dataset recently created to serve the heliophysics community as a testbed for solar flare forecasting models. SWAN-SF contains 54 unique…
Interplanetary magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) are commonly observed structures in the solar wind, categorized as magnetic clouds (MCs) and small-scale MFRs (SMFRs) depending on whether they are associated with coronal mass ejections. We apply…
We analyse the spatial distribution and vertical stratification of the physical parameters of the solar atmosphere when an X-class flare occurs. We made use of observations acquired by the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectropolarimeter…
This study progresses solar flare prediction research by presenting a full-disk deep-learning model to forecast $\geq$M-class solar flares and evaluating its efficacy on both central (within $\pm$70$^\circ$) and near-limb (beyond…
Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…
Predicting the severity of the solar eruptive phenomena like flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) remains a great challenge despite concerted efforts for several decades. The advent of high quality vector magnetograms obtained from…
The X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM), launched into low-Earth orbit in 2023, observes the reflection of solar flare X-rays in the Earth's atmosphere as a by-product of celestial observations. Using a $\sim$one-year data set…
This study aims to evaluate the performance of deep learning models in predicting $\geq$M-class solar flares with a prediction window of 24 hours, using hourly sampled full-disk line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram images, particularly focusing…
Recent studies indicate that measurements of fractal and multifractal parameters of active regions (ARs) are not efficient tools to discriminate ARs on the basis of the flare activity, as well as to predict flare events. Attempting…
Solar flares result from the rapid conversion of stored magnetic energy within the Sun's corona. These energy releases are associated with coronal magnetic loops, which are rooted in dense photospheric plasma and are passively transported…
In the standard model of solar eruptive events, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares are associated with each other through magnetic reconnection initiated by erupting flux ropes. Observations also reveal an increasing association ratio…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…